My friend the reader, Rabbi Eliyahu Yishai. In my opinion, which represents many other good people, it is the duty of the hour to run a technical block with Rabbi Michael Ben Ari. And preferably one hour earlier.
Otherwise, the great loss, when both of you, God forbid, will be shattered with your parties and thousands of votes that cast on the rocks of the electoral ocean just a few meters from the shore of the safe haven, the coveted threshold, could be engraved in the pages of history in your name.
Let's take a moment to reflect before the two of you embark on an unnecessary adventure in separate, rickety boats in this terrible ocean and its treacherous waves, among the whales and predatory sharks that lurk at your every step, from the imaginary right and the extreme left.
Here is the calculation:
In the 18th Knesset, approximately 112,000 voters voted for the National Union, and entered 4 individuals into the Knesset of the Sexes: Katzleh, Uri Ariel, Aryeh Eldad, and Michael Ben Ari.
Although Ben Ari only received fourth place, it turns out that most of the voters came from his base.
The proof was given in the elections for the 19th Knesset when a total of 67,000 people voted for Otzma LeYisrael, led by Aryeh Eldad and Michael Ben-Ari. It is no secret that Aryeh Eldad has almost no audience of his own. There are almost no people who are not observant of Torah and Mitzvot right now, on the loyal right (- I am not using the fake term "extreme right". This term is appropriate for terrorist groups in France or the US that set fire to innocent civilian targets, and the same is not true of the situation in Israel. There is no such animal here. We do not have an extreme right. Perhaps in the delusions of the left and the recruited propaganda).
After all, 67,000 out of 112,000 National Union voters were for Otzma.
How many are we left with? – With 45 thousand. These are Tekuma voters who went with Ariel to Jewish Home. And this is the pool of votes that is supposed to go to Yishai's party, if and when Ariel joins him. This is a mandate and a half. No more. Of course, June Stevon brings some VAT. We have reached 2 mandates.
The truth is, even if Uri Ariel remains at the end of the verse, in the warm embrace of the Jewish Home party, which is rich in positions and appointments in the future government, as is expected of them, it is very possible that an entire mandate of Haredi members will defect to the Eli Yishai party.
These are people whose souls were torn apart by the blatant arrogance of the Bentites on the one hand, and on the other hand, they began to admire the new Hardalite star Yoni Shtavun.
Even in such a case, their number will not exceed 2 seats.
So we closed the Haredi side with 2 seats, plus or minus.
* * * * *
Now on the Spanish side, the former Shassi:
Shas received 11 and a half seats in the previous elections.
At a rough estimate, there are about 10 Haredi Sephardic seats. About half a seat or more "runs away" to Torah Judaism. These are Mishkanazim, Marvetzis, etc. 9 full seats have so far voted exclusively for Shas in each campaign. 2-3 seats have always been added to Shas from voters of the Mizrahi, Haredi, Srougim-lite, and traditional communities, who preferred the blessings and teachings of the Maran Ha-Gar'a over the Mafdal or Likud.
In the current situation, it appears that Deri or Rabbi Shalom Cohen or even the "Shas" brand will not succeed in sweeping away more than a few thousand from this public. They will all return to parties that are closer to their views. Shas is beginning to see a drain. Actually, not a small drain that any novice plumber can plug. This is a huge cascade of votes escaping to Likud and Kahlon. Just like what is happening in Ashkenazi Haredi, which loses about 2 seats in every election campaign to large secular parties. Ask the people who are in charge of these parties.
As a senior Shas official told me ("not to be attributed, God forbid"): "After the passing of Maran, there is a feeling in the public that now everything is permitted.".
If we assume that at least 2 seats will vote for Bibi, Kahlon, and maybe even for Buji, we are left with 7 seats, of which no more than a third will defect to Yishai, about 2 and a half seats, in the best case for Yishai. And the worst for Aryeh Deri...
* * * * * *
Here we bring Rabbi Eliyahu into the room and ask him: In Mota, you are asking him, if his honor manages to attract to you from Shas, plus or minus 2 seats, and from the Haredi public, they will also reach you in the same number. So you are standing right on the threshold of the electoral threshold, 4 seats.
Isn't it forbidden?!
Why don't you also include Michael Ben Ari's Otzma Yehudit in the technical block??
Even if after the elections he will probably remain outside the coalition (not necessarily the opposition. Some kind of UN), and you, with Stevon and the others, will happily rush to ministerial and deputy ministerial positions in the next government, that shouldn't bother you at all. I'm sure even Netanyahu wouldn't care.
So what are you waiting for, Rabbi Eliyahu?
- That Uri Ariel will continue to use you as a bargaining chip that he so badly needs in order to get the most favors out of the Bennets?!
חבל על כל יום שמתבזבז. שעון החול אוזל. הבחירות כבר בפתח הכותב משמש חבר מועצת העיר ביתר עילית
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