Many are sensing the major change in IDF activity in Gaza. Residents of the "envelope" are keenly aware of how the intensity of the bombings is decreasing, while others are noticing the decreasing frequency of fighter jets. The number of casualties in Gaza in recent times also indicates a decrease in fighting intensity.
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If we want to be precise, we can say it clearly: Right now the IDF is pretty much floundering in Gaza.
This does not mean that there is not intense fighting at various points in the Strip, but at the systemic level, the intensity and scope of the fighting do not approach the intensity we were accustomed to at the beginning of the war.
There are several reasons for this, here are some of them:
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- Limited power orders:
Following the month of terror, known by the Palestinians as the month of Ramadan, and due to the threats received by the security establishment, and in particular regarding the Judea and Samaria sector, the IDF made a decision to reinforce the forces in the tense sector. And when there are more force deployments in the Judea and Samaria sector than in Gaza, it is clear to everyone that it is not possible to conduct a powerful campaign in both the Strip and Judea and Samaria.
- As few harsh images as possible during the month of Ramadan:
Over the years, during Ramadan, Israeli governments have distributed gifts and treats to Palestinians. This year, the concept has not changed either. In addition to releasing security prisoners, the security establishment has decided to lower the flames in Gaza as well. According to security sources, images of displaced and killed children in Gaza during Ramadan will only increase terrorism and inflame global public opinion.
- Disagreements with the Americans:
It is no longer a secret that the American administration is not interested in an Israeli ground maneuver in Rafah, one of Hamas's last and most difficult strongholds. From the Americans' perspective, the maneuver can be declared over now. Fortunately, the Israeli security establishment and the Prime Minister are not willing to hear about it. It is difficult to see Israel embarking on a maneuver in Rafah, without any coordination or agreement with the Americans. But right now, there is no agreement.
- Transporting the entire population in Rafah:
The defense establishment understands that it is impossible to begin the maneuver in Rafah without evacuating all the Gazan citizens who migrated there from the north and center of the Gaza Strip. In order to evacuate over a million Gazans living on the Israel-Egypt border, it is necessary to decide where and when to evacuate them. Right now, the IDF prefers to end the maneuver in Khan Yunis before dealing with the remaining terrorist battalions in Rafah.
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The current shuffle is very bad for our forces. In the meantime, the other side is not sitting idly by. From the terrorists' perspective, every day that passes is more precious time to plant explosives and prepare for the call of fighters who will arrive for the maneuver. The defense establishment is also aware of this, but still, for all the reasons we have listed - and a few more reasons - they prefer to postpone the big maneuver in Rafah and console themselves with the fact that "enough is enough for the time being.".
But, let's calm down. The maneuver in Rafah will come, and as a senior security source told me this week: "It's not a question of if, but of when and how.".
Israel estimates that as the days go by, they will be able to make it clear to the American president the necessity of the maneuver, but it mainly seems that the longer the flames in the Judea and Samaria region remain low, the more the fire in Rafah will grow.
