1.
When Moshe Aboutubol was nominated as the Shas party's candidate for mayor of Beit Shemesh, it seemed like it was a bargaining chip. Shortly before the announcement, Shas almost closed with Mayor Aliza Bloch. Only a phone call from one of the members of the "Council of Elders" cut off her signature.
Then the massacre in the south happened, Israel declared war, and the elections were postponed and postponed. Since then, everything has been in turmoil again.
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Not many know the reason for the firm opposition presented by the son of the Rebbe of Vizhnitz, the rabbi of the community in Elad, to the candidacy of Mayor Yisrael Porush. Some claim that the assistance that Porush extended to the needs of the Vizhnitz-Center community is what is going to hurt him. While in Bnei Brak everything is being done to maintain peaceful relations with the younger brother from Vizhnitz-Center and his followers, Elad is proceeding differently. It is unlikely that such petty considerations caused Vizhnitz to defect from supporting the Agudat Yisrael candidate, the incumbent mayor, to supporting the Shas candidate Yehuda Butbul, but the argument needs to be presented.
Some say that it all happened because of Beit Shemesh: the Vizhnitz court found itself resentful of the allocations made by Mayor Aliza Bloch, and the desire to support another candidate (and not a representative of Degel, whose support is enjoyed by the party in Elad) led to support for the Shas candidate in Beit Shemesh and Elad. But again, it is hard to believe that economic considerations led to a move that could dismantle Agudat Israel from within. But the argument needs to be presented.
Initially, it is worth mentioning, Vizhnitz announced and signed a statement of support for Shmulik Greenberg, a "flag" candidate in Beit Shemesh. Later, he was also received by the Rebbe of Bezla, who gave him his support. If all the Hasidic courts in the city had lined up behind him - Gur with Vizhnitz and Shlomi Emunim with Belza, and of course the Lithuanians, Beit Shemesh might already be back in Haredi hands by now.
But then October 7th came. The elections were postponed and postponed again - and the tables were turned.
As it currently appears, the chances that Aliza Bloch will serve another term as mayor are quite reasonable.
2.
Surprisingly enough, immediately after the "Tish" for Tu B'Shvat, the Rebbe of Vizhnitz summoned the rabbis of the Vizhnitz communities and the administrators of the institutions in the city of Beit Shemesh for a conversation, and informed them of his firm opinion: to support candidate Moshe Aboutbol in the elections.
This, despite the previous support, despite the signature. Is there a way to enforce such a signature? It's hard to say.
On the one hand, in the Porush case in the previous elections in Elad, the dispute over signatures reached the court of the dayan, Rabbi Shilman, who discussed and overturned the matter and ruled as he did. In other words, there is a way to enforce Torah law. On the other hand, when the Rebbe is the one who decides - what will you do? Summon the Rebbe to Torah law? Nothing like this has ever happened before, and we hope it never will.
In this dramatic development, Vizhnitz joins Gur's (silent) support for Moshe Aboutbul.
Perhaps it's worth mentioning: Before the first election date, Minister Yitzhak Goldknopf arrived at the inauguration of the Talmud Torah in Beit Shemesh. "You are facing elections today with many other candidates. You have the most votes," he told Aliza Bloch.
It was clear at that moment that these words did not necessarily have any cover. First, because flattery costs nothing. Second, there are still a few months in which her good services will be needed. But that says nothing about Hasidic support (or not) for Bloch, I wrote at the time.
And this is what happened: the support of the Gur Hasidic movement over time, followed by Wiznitz, was given to Abutbol.
In other words, the one who will benefit from this might actually be Bloch. But we will explain the basis of this conclusion in a moment.
3.
It started with the Shas-Gor "Five Cities Deal.".
Remember the veto that Degel imposed in Bnei Brak on Gur's candidate Hanoch Seibert? Following this, Gur offered Shas support for her position in Beit Shemesh, support for the Shas candidate in Ashdod (Barak Sari, with Avi Amsalem in the front), Elad, Bnei Brak and Kiryat Gat.
Uriel Bosso, Shas' candidate for mayor of Bnei Brak, has already returned to his residence in Petah Tikva. He received the compensation in his position as health minister, and then Gur stormed off to Ashdod, when the local Hasidim refused to accept the concession - and insisted on supporting Mayor Yechiel Lasri. Vizhnitz's votes, as a dowry in Beit Shemesh, are a kind of compensation. And another bonus: Vizhnitz also supports the Shas candidate in Elad.
Ask: 'Degel' knew about the 'deal,' so why did it lift the veto it imposed on Hanoch Seibert and not run a candidate on its behalf in Bnei Brak? Why didn't it tie the lifting of the veto with a signature in support of the 'Degel' candidate in Beit Shemesh? Maybe because there are naive people in 'Degel' who believe that a word is a word, and maybe because they knew in advance that a signature has no meaning when it comes to politics.
So they will sign. And what good will it do?
4.
It was clear from the start that unless all the factions of the ultra-Orthodox community in Beit Shemesh (or at least most of them) unite around one candidate, Aliza Bloch has a chance of winning. In fact, I wrote back then that in order to win, she would need the support of two ultra-Orthodox factions.
In Beit Shemesh, there are 88,316 eligible voters for the upcoming municipal elections. The massive population of Haredim in recent years, plus natural growth, has led to the Haredi community in Beit Shemesh comprising about 70 percent of the city's residents. The approximate division is about one-third for each party - Degel, Agoyi, Shas - assuming that each faction also has (not large) rebel nests of those who refuse to align with 'instructions from above.' In addition, there are about two thousand Haredim eligible voters who are not segmented.
It is estimated that about 70% of all those eligible to vote will come to vote (in an ultra-Orthodox city there are about 80% voters, but in a mixed city like Beit Shemesh the likely turnout will be around 70%).
Aliza Bloch: Received about 22,000 votes 5 years ago. Since then, two things have happened to Bloch: negative immigration among the non-Haredi population; an increase in modern Haredi voters (it should be noted that in the previous elections, Bloch also benefited from Haredi protest votes). It is estimated that the increase in Haredi voters will be offset by negative immigration, and therefore Bloch's glass ceiling will be 22,000 votes. If a third of the Likud supports Abutbol, it will drop to about 20,000 votes.
Shmulik Greenberg: The Torah Banner has between 13 and 15 thousand eligible voters. Shlomi Emunim and Belza have a vote pool of about 15 thousand voters, but from them, fanatic Hasidism or families that do not vote must be neutralized - so they will have about 10,000 votes.
Moshe Aboutbul: From an analysis of the results of the Knesset elections, taking into account natural growth, population in new neighborhoods, and the shift of traditional Shas voters nationally and locally to different parties, Shas will have a maximum of about 12,000 votes. Gur, Vizhnitz, and the Hasidim who are affiliated with the central faction will reach about 5,500 votes.
Likud's support for Abutbol? On the one hand, there are about 701 TP3T in Beit Shemesh who are defined as ultra-Orthodox, on the other hand, there is a division in the ultra-Orthodox public, and therefore there is a widespread feeling among the secular public that this is the last opportunity to save the city from ultra-Orthodox rule...
In light of this, if the Likud announces support for Abutbol, out of approximately 7,000 Likud votes, approximately 1,500-2,000 will vote for Abutbol, and then the second round will be either between Greenberg and Bloch or between Greenberg and Abutbol.
Here is the calculation (estimated, as mentioned, and based on previous elections and additional data):
Shmulik Greenberg:
• Flag - 14,500 votes.
• 'Shlomi Emunim', which includes Belza and Chabad - 9,200 votes.
• As of today, the 'Jerusalem Faction' is split into three parts. One part is closed with Shlomi Emunim ('Kahf' faction) - about 1,000 votes in number, who supports Shmulik Greenberg.
• Secular and national religious - 1,000
• Modern Haredim - 900
A total of approximately 25,600 votes
Moshe Abutbul:
• Shas about 11,300
• Gur Vizhnitz and others - 5,100
• Another faction in the 'Flag' - about 700.
• If he gains the support of about a third of the Likud - about 1,500-2,000
A total of about 17,100 votes (and with Likud about 19,000).
Aliza Bloch:
• Since there are no additional candidates, it can be assumed that she will receive the support of the entire secular public, plus the traditional public - a total of about 10,900.
• The National Religious Public - approximately 6,500
• Modern Haredim - 900
• Two-thirds of the Likud votes.
A total of about 20,000-22,000 votes.
According to this data, Greenberg and Bloch advance to the second round.
In such a case, Shas and Gur and Vizhnitz will support Bloch (what you can't do in the first round, you can afford to do in the second round, especially when hostility towards 'Degel' is high, especially after an election campaign that will probably be sharp and aggressive).
This way, Beit Shemesh will once again be in the hands of Aliza Bloch. Will you try to accuse Gur of 'secularizing' (in this case, religious-national) Beit Shemesh as happened in 1969 in Jerusalem? You can't. Because Vizhnitz was first.
5.
But forget for a moment the local war that focuses on the question of 'who will take out the garbage' in Beit Shemesh (or, in Haredi terms, who is responsible for building mikvahs and their kosherness) or in Elad.
Let's talk national politics.
The conflicts in Elad (Vizhnitz against 'Shlomi Emunim' and 'Degel') and in Beit Shemesh (Vizhnitz and Gur against 'Degel' and 'Shlomi Emunim') are re-boiling the internal conflict in the AGU, which is also dragging 'Degel' into the fray, to which 'Shlomi Emunim' and Hetzer Belza are joining, while Gur and Vizhnitz are identified with Shas. Admittedly, the connection is really unnatural.
In a situation where Degel decides to run separately in the next Knesset elections, Shlomi Emunim and Elza will prefer to join Degel (especially if Porush loses the property in Elad), while Gur and Wizhnitz will find themselves pushed into the arms of Shas (will Deri grant them representation on the list? Highly doubtful, to put it mildly).
And so, Agudat Israel, which was historically united (except for Belza in 1989), will find itself torn in two. The result? Think of the war on the newspapers, and the bloody war on the Haredi streets. Absolutely unnecessary.
But, for now, that seems to be the case. That's what happens when intrigue and deals outweigh any other logical consideration.
6.
And so, Beit Shemesh, where a Haredi mayor could easily have been installed, may continue to be under the control of Aliza Bloch, who according to some Haredim was excellent, while according to others a little less so - and there is still no doubt that a Haredi mayor is always preferable in a city whose majority of residents are Haredi.
And in the national arena, the "Hambesar" will be here, and with it also the "Yated Ne'eman", with the Haresh Alter as the head of the Gur yeshiva, in Bnei Brak the Lithuanians will refrain from voting for the Gur Hasid (or Shasnik) and with them also the Belza Hasids and others.
And the children of Rechsim, who are not used to elections and always knew that there were agreements, will shout "Shakhtuz" and "Franek" to each other, on the way to deciding between the Shas candidate and the "Degel" candidate.
Because even after October 7th, we forgot to be brothers. We forgot to be united.
