First poll after retirement: How many seats for Gideon Sa'ar's party?

December 9, 2020   

The first mandate poll conducted for 103fm in the hours after his announcement of leaving the Likud and establishing a new party, aimed at replacing Netanyahu as head of government - Gideon Sa'ar receives 17 mandates. What is a “shared car price list”? How will the prices be displayed in the price list? All the details However, it is known that such surveys inherently give a boost to a candidate who has just entered the political arena. According to the survey, conducted for 103fm by Menachem Lazar, director of Panels Politics, a new party led by Gideon Sa'ar would emerge as the third largest party in the political system, if the elections were held today. The mandates are drawn from almost the entire political system with the exception of the Haredi parties and Meretz. Thus, in the current survey, Likud has 25 mandates, Yamina also weakens to 19, Yesh Atid-Telem drops to 14, and the Joint List has a low figure of 11 mandates. Yisrael Beiteinu reaches only 7 mandates in this survey, and Blue and White collapses to 6. Shas and United Torah Judaism maintain their strength - with Shas with 9 seats and United Torah Judaism with 7. Meretz closes the list with 5 stable seats in this poll as well. The poll shows - compared to previous polls by Panel Politics - that Saar takes 3 from Likud, 4 from Yamina, 4 from Blue and White, and 4 from Yesh Atid. The most intriguing statistic examined in the poll is how such a party affects the political map and the chances of which of the candidates to form a government after the elections. The results, here too, are surprising: a bloc led by Netanyahu, which includes Likud and the haredi parties, reaches only 41 seats, or 60 with Yamina. An alternative bloc to Netanyahu, led by Gideon Saar, and with the participation of Yesh Atid, the Joint List, Yisrael Beiteinu, Blue and White, and Meretz, also reaches 60 seats in the next Knesset. ""The poll should have a very big asterisk," Golan Yokfaz emphasized this morning on 103fm, in light of the preliminary nature of the poll. Ostensibly, then, there appears to be a tie between two completely new blocs - but several questions remain open: how many seats will Gideon Sa'ar win when the effect of the primaries wears off and when the composition of his list members is revealed to the public, and how will parties like Yamina and Yisrael Beiteinu, which have the power to dramatically change the composition of the blocs, and whose leaders have stated more than once that they do not intend to automatically join any bloc, behave? And one more central question is on the table: Will elections be held at all - or will Netanyahu and Gantz, in light of recent developments, find a way to return their coalition to a working track that will ensure their continued tenure in leadership? We will receive the answers to these and many other questions, as always, only very close to our upcoming fourth meeting, the citizens of Israel, with the ballot boxes. The 103fm survey was featured on the 'Sheva Tesh' program on 103fm. It was conducted last night using the Panel4All respondent panel for conducting research on the Internet. A representative sample of the adult population in the State of Israel, both Jews and Arabs - aged 18 and over - participated in it. The maximum sampling error in this survey is 4.4 percent.