Did restrictions help? Study: 'Trend of slowing morbidity, pandemic in decline''

A study conducted in recent days at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem shows that since the implementation of the restriction on gatherings began ten days ago, there has been a slowdown in the number of patients in moderate and serious condition - and a further slowdown is expected in the coming days.

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The data from the study - published in Israel Hayom - on which, among others, Prof. Ran Nir Paz, Prof. Ronit Calderon Margalit, and Prof. Doron Gazit worked, indicates that the infection coefficient has dropped to less than 1.

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A contagion rate of less than one indicates a decrease in the spread of the epidemic (contagion coefficient 1 = when a patient infects one other patient).

Prof. Yinon Ashkenazi, Rakeh Institute for Physics at the Hebrew University, one of the authors of the report: "Our index, which consists of analyzing data from moderate and severe patients, shows a significant slowdown in infection. When the doubling times reach 20, the infection rate appears to be slowing. The infection coefficient is about 0.99. This means that the epidemic is on the wane.".

He said, "Our conclusion is that the measures taken on July 17, including limiting gatherings in closed places to ten people and in open places to 20, actually worked. The slowdown trend has been going on for some time, and the conclusion from it is not that we can open up more, but it certainly doesn't need to get worse either.".

""The conclusion is that the existing restrictions worked and we need to think about how to create life within these restrictions. The good thing is that we were not forced to do a full lockdown, but a partial lockdown.".

In recent days, the number of people hospitalized has reached a peak of about 740.

Prof. Ashkenazi: "There will be hundreds more people who will die in the current wave. But from now on we will be on a slowing trend. We will start to see the decrease in the number of patients.".