1.
The last few days in the Knesset remind me of similar days, a year ago.
A few months before the elections for the Chief Rabbinate, you've already seen them on every corner, knocking on doors, trying to find a listening ear. These were the candidates who wanted to be elected to the coveted position. Some of them, who almost swore in the hallways that they would 'run to the end,' were eager to remove their names from the list. There was also one who ran-ran-ran, but only until the crucial moment of submitting his candidacy. Then he told the chilling reason why he "didn't run in the end.".
I recently remembered when I was told how much good Jews are trying to convince David Levy, the man and the Beit Shean, to run. He is still undecided, they added. Some insisted that "he will only run if he is guaranteed to reach the second round." He would be happy to win, but would want to reassure himself about the second round, at the very least.
""If they present him with 40-45 sure votes, which will at least get him to the second round," they say, "he will run." Or not.
Those who are pushing him with all their might are his son-in-law Sharon Shalom, a senior official in Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman's office, and Modi'in Mayor Haim Bivas - Levi's nephew. But it seems that as of now, even they don't really believe that he will join the race. If he runs, by the way, he is guaranteed the votes of Yisrael Beiteinu, some of the votes of the Likudists, as well as some of the votes of Shas MKs.
After all, Levy is an Easterner, and he is not a candidate of the 'left'.
And yet, from eyewitness accounts of those who saw him at the funeral of the late Yechiel Kadishai, he does not give the impression of someone who is in good health, even if his health is normal.
My assessment: He won't run. The exciting reason why he won't - they'll find it.
2.
I met Dalia Itzik in the hallway, near the meat buffet, after it closed early at 3:00 PM (new boss, new rules. I haven't tasted the food yet. They say there's been an improvement).
""An ultra-Orthodox guy just passed by, he said he works with you," I said.
""I haven't hired any Haredi consultants yet," she replied. The emphasis was on the "yet.".
Is there a chance she won't run? I estimate that if and when she thinks her situation is not promising, she will withdraw. In my opinion, her very intention to run is an achievement in a country that has yet to elect a female president.
Opposing her is Fuad Ben Eliezer, also a representative of the left. He too will supposedly benefit from the opposition's votes. Apparently, since these are secret elections. No one owes anyone anything. Fuad's big mistake may have been asking for support from the Labor Party. In doing so, he officially made himself the "left candidate" and alienated votes from the right, those who might have considered giving him their vote. "If he had acted wisely, he would have collected signatures for himself from all parts of the house, just like Rubi did," says a senior Likud official.
Itzik can garner a few votes from Labor (not everyone there likes Fuad), a few more from the Arab factions (not everyone will unanimously vote for Reuven Rivlin), and a few more votes from Shas.
3.
The Likud, with only 20 seats, is halved. The locomotive of support for Rivlin is led by ministers Yisrael Katz and Gideon Sa'ar - with MK Haim Katz behind. This morning, after the announcement that Silvan will not run, MKs Ze'ev Elkin and Miri Regev also joined Rivlin's supporters. The rest will support 'another candidate' - it is still unclear who he is and what his name is.
There are enough members of the Likud to seek a presidential house, and it is not impossible that they will choose Dalia Itzik. Surprisingly, she is managing to gain support for herself even within the Jewish Home.
The interesting thing is that while there are people in the Likud who admire Rubi, a Likudnik with roots, there are also those who oppose him with all their passion. His dogmatism has often managed to hurt people in the field, and they will be there to exact the price.
Rivlin hangs in this tangled chain.
In the background, just like in the story of the Chief Rabbinate, the name of Rabbi Israel Meir Lau came up again and again. The popular rabbi of Tel Aviv-Yafo, and who has long since become an international rabbi, far beyond the city's borders without a break.
No, he is not running, his associates clarify, but there is no joy without eggplants, no rabbinical and/or presidential elections without Rabbi Lau's name.
Rumor has it that some of his close associates are pressuring him, some of whom have even met with Cabinet Secretary Avichai Mandelblit.
But running, it seems, won't get you out of this.
4.
Around 3:00 PM, I met Ruben Rivlin, heading towards the Ra'am-Ta'al faction room. The friendliness with which he was received there was reminiscent of the one with which he was received in Torah Judaism. But it is important to remember that a name is like a name - friendliness does not teach anything about the voting itself.
""The baklava on the table is not in honor of Ruby, it is in honor of one of the faction employees who got engaged," MK Ahmed Tibi quickly explained with a smile, just before we build towers of cards on this baklava.
Outside the room, MK Yisrael Eichler approached Rivlin's office manager, Rivka Ravitz, and told her that on Election Day, the 12th of Sivan, they would celebrate the wedding of the granddaughter of the Rebbe of Belza. So it's true that it won't be a wedding like the grandson's last year, and yet both he and MK Menachem Eliezer Mozes will be busy with the wedding - and we can forget about voting if the plenum convenes during regular Tuesday hours - starting at 4 p.m.
MK Eichler, I tried to understand, are you asking her to handle this because you and Mozes intend to vote for Rubi?
He smiled in response.
It is not easy for a MK in United Torah Judaism to reveal the secret of his presidential vote. The only one who has done so is MK Yaakov Litzman, who both signed for Rivlin and publicly stands behind his word-signature.
5.
An hour later, I met Robbie in line for the coffee machine at the dairy buffet. I still remember, I told him, how in the previous term Ravitz was like a United Torah Judaism member of Knesset. A few requests, a few wishes - and she handled everything with dedication.
""I myself helped them quite a bit," Rivlin replied, and I seemed to hear a little pain in his voice.
It's clear to me that she did what she did with your full backing, I said.
I asked him if he wasn't disappointed that they were hesitating, stuttering. He expressed hope that they would eventually vote for him.
I would have expected them to stand behind you out of gratitude, I said. An act that would teach politicians that if you help - your reward will come. But apart from Litzman, who showed courage and revealed that he would vote for you, they did not do so.
He was silent.
My assessment: Despite everything, most United Torah Judaism MKs will give him their vote. At the ballot box, not out loud beforehand.
6.
And what about the Mizrahi Orthodox?
Well, there's a dilemma. Chairman Aryeh Deri will remain loyal to his friend and colleague Avigdor Lieberman (don't they talk in the hallway? It's always worth checking what's going on across the hallway), if and when David Levy runs. And if not - my feeling is that he will support Fuad (he's Mizrahi and has a bureau manager who knew how to pamper the Haredim in the good old days). But in the renewed Shas, the one after the passing of the late Rabbi Zacharias, the members won't really obey the boss. Certainly not behind the curtain.
Within the party, there is a real debate between the eastern candidates Fuad and Itzik, and Rivlin.
What they don't know, and we'll reveal it here, is that Rivlin himself has grandchildren of all shades - Moroccan, Iraqi, and Yemeni. A point to his credit in the party for restoring Atara to its former glory.
A few days ago, at the celebration of a circumcision, Deri and Rivlin met. Rivlin left the conversation feeling good, although, if you ask me, Deri is an expert at making people feel good 'even without a cover-up.'.
Officially, Deri allows each faction member to sign for candidates, according to their inclination. In practice, how to vote at the ballot box, the Council of Torah Sages will decide.
7.
On Tuesday morning, Judy Shalom-Nir-Moses 'tweeted' a hint that her husband, Sylvan, was planning to run. Not an explicit statement, but the explicit insinuation was definitely there.
But Tuesday passed, and there was no announcement.
It turns out that the school that the Prime Minister's Office gave Silvan was quite reminiscent of what they did to Rivlin just a few days earlier. On Tuesday, he met with Netanyahu in the latter's office in the Knesset. It is not clear what they talked about, what Silvan demanded and what Bibi (did not) promise him.
Either way, while his wife was tweeting, Israel Hayom surprised him with news: Netanyahu is not giving Silvan his public support.
At the time the news was published, Silvan was sitting comfortably and peacefully with Gila Gamliel and Ze'ev Elkin in the MKs' cafeteria, feasting on their food.
Anyone who saw Silvan a minute after the news was published could not help but feel that this was a "Tisha B'Av face.".
8.
The unsolved riddle, which keeps the best minds busy for hours, is: Who smeared the presidential candidates?
Fuad was fined for the gambling affair, then for his health. Silvan was subjected to a police investigation. Even Rivlin was subjected to a defamatory video.
Is this a serial slanderer, someone who works hard to dig into the candidates' pasts and expose them to the public eye?
Good questions.
And as if there was no more mud in the arena, Netanyahu's latest moves, backed by Avigdor Lieberman, finally determined the presidential elections as disgusting.
Or in the words of the owner of the website 'Likudnik', Likud member Arik Ziv: "The panic that comes from Netanyahu and Lieberman to prevent the election of Ruben Rivlin is turning these elections into a neighborhood.".
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