A secret intelligence assessment by the CIA, the American intelligence agency, revealed this evening (Thursday) in the Washington Post, reveals a worrying picture that casts doubt on the ability of the American blockade to subdue Iran in the near term.
According to the document, which was delivered this week to members of Congress and government officials in the United States, Iran still possesses most of its military capabilities and will be able to survive the blockade imposed by President Trump for at least three to four months - before facing more serious economic difficulties.
The report is based on four sources familiar with the details of the document, who claim that President Trump's statements about Iran losing $500 million a day in revenue from oil exports do not lead to a quick compromise.
According to the CIA, for the consequences to be truly serious, the blockade must last for over 120 days.
According to the report, the American intelligence assessment also refers to Tehran's remaining military capabilities. A US source estimated that Iran still possesses about 75% of the mobile launcher stockpile it had before the war, and about 70% of the missile stockpile it had on the eve of the campaign.
The report also indicates that another area that survived the war is Iran's stockpile of drones - which helps it threaten the shipping lanes in the Strait of Hormuz.
This is in contrast to President Trump's statements, who claimed this week that Iran's missile array had been largely destroyed, and said that Tehran only had "18% or 19% of the capabilities it had before the war.".
According to the document, after the Israeli and American air force bombings, the regime managed to reopen the underground storage facilities whose entrances had been bombed, and even repair damaged missiles and complete the assembly of new missiles.
On the economic front, although the Iranian rial has hit a historic low, intelligence sources estimate that the regime is confident in its ability to suppress internal opposition and survive.
The document concludes and warns that the timetable for resuming Iran's ballistic missile production in "significant quantities" has been significantly shortened, putting the West in a race against time in an attempt to prevent the regime from restoring its full strength.
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