One question repeats itself over and over again for every politics enthusiast: How is it possible that there is such a significant gap between the results of the polls published on Channel 14 and the samples on other media channels?
On the "Sofshavau" program this evening (Thursday), commentator Shlomo (Momo) Filber presented an in-depth analysis that seeks to put an end to speculation and explain the numbers behind the controversy over the size of the right-wing bloc.
The gap: about 10 seats in dispute
According to Filber, the gap began to open in early 2023, amid legal reform and protests, and stabilized at about 10% – equivalent to about 10 seats or about 380,000 voters. While other pollsters claim that the right lost these seats, Channel 14 presents that the bloc remains stable.
The test, which was based on a comparison between the poll averages of the main channels (Keshet 12, Reshet 13, Kan 11, Maariv and Israel Hayom) and Channel 14, revealed a surprising finding: in 10 of the 12 competing parties - there is no gap.
The data shows that in all coalition parties - except Likud, and in all opposition parties - except Bennett's party, the numbers are completely identical among all pollsters.
Moreover, the total number of seats for the Likud and Bennett's party together stands at 42 seats in all polls. "The whole debate is whether the Likud lost 9 seats to Bennett, or whether they remained in the right-wing bloc as we claim," Filber emphasized.
Where did the Likud voters go?
To decide the question, the polling institute conducted a huge study among 870 respondents, all of whom declared that they voted for the Likud party in the 2022 elections.
The results refute the "Great Abandonment" theory:
• 90% of the respondents stated that they would vote for Likud again.
• 4% are moving to other right-wing parties.
• 3% are still undecided.
• Only 41% (about one and a half seats) declared that they would vote for the opposition parties - Bennett, Lieberman, or Eisenkot.
Filber noted that in the past the percentage of those leaving the opposition was higher and reached about 15% (4.5 seats), but today the trend has reversed.
The myth about the loss of trust in Netanyahu
Contrary to the interpretations heard in the studios, according to which the right-wing public believes that Netanyahu is guilty of the October 7th failure and is unworthy of continuing in office, the in-depth survey among Likud voters from 2022 presents the opposite picture. According to the data, 95% of Likud voters in 2022 give full confidence in Netanyahu even at the beginning of 2026.
The bottom line of the analysis indicates that the shift from Likud to the opposition amounts to less than one and a half seats.
On the other hand, Likud is strengthening with 2-3 seats coming from other sources - the return of Gideon Saar voters and right-wing voters who previously supported Gantz and Lapid - which offsets the small departure.
Filber: "There is no other vote pool on the right that can contribute 9 seats to Bennett – not the Haredim, not Smotrich, and certainly not Ben Gvir. The seats that the other pollsters give Bennett are 'virtual'. They have not left, they are still in the right-wing bloc today, and they are the ones who give the government the majority today as well.".
Filber posed a challenge to his colleagues: "I invite all other media outlets and their polling institutes to conduct a similar survey and present the results, so that we know whether 10 seats actually left the bloc or not.".
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