Close battle between the blocs: According to a survey conducted by the Panels Politics Institute headed by Menachem Lazar for 103fm, the elections will likely be decided based on the distribution of mandates among the small parties, which are fighting for their political survival.
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The poll shows that the bloc of parties led by Netanyahu, together with Yamina, reaches 59 seats and cannot form a government. The bloc with only Bibi has 61 seats without Yamina or 64 seats for a coalition with Yamina and without the Joint List, but with Labor and Meretz.
The distribution of seats shows slight decreases of one seat among 3 of the 4 major parties: Likud drops to 28 seats, New Hope with 13, and Yamina with 12. Yesh Atid is the only one at the top that maintains its strength this week, with 18 seats.
There are no changes in the center of the table: the Joint List with 9 seats, Shas with 8, United Torah Judaism with 7, and so does Yisrael Beiteinu. The Labor Party maintains its strength with 6 seats.
The significant battle was also recorded this week in the lower part of the table, and there is a new entrant there: the Religious Zionist Party led by Bezalel Smotrich.
The party, which united with Otzma Yehudit and Noam, continues to weaken and this week finds itself with only 4 seats, and dangerously far from the threshold. Also at the bottom: Meretz with 4 seats, as well as Benny Gantz's Blue and White, which crosses the red line, unlike last week, and also has 4 seats.
However, poll editor Menachem Lazar notes that while Blue and White is stable, Meretz is in danger of not passing.
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The poll also shows that Yaron Zelikha is far from the blocking percentage with support of only 1.3 percent. Mansour Abbas's Ra'am party has 2 percent. The rate of undecided people remains very high - 14 percent.
Majority among respondents: Fifth elections on the way
Another question raised in the survey examined voters' feelings in the month of the last alignment, regarding their chances of deciding the political system.
Their prominent answer was, unfortunately: We are on our way to a fifth election.
In the breakdown of the results: 46 percent of all respondents believe that Israel will be dragged into another election, compared to 39 percent who feel that it will be decided in this round. The assessment that we will go to the polls again is greater among left-wing voters, at 50 percent, or 51 percent among Yesh Atid voters.
On the other hand, 61 percent of those who responded that they would vote for Likud believe that at the end of this round there will be a clear winner.
The coming weeks are when the party campaigns will kick into high gear, and it is likely that the 'vote feast' of the major parties will also begin. The fragile situation of the left, center, and right parties at the bottom of the table is a significant factor in the ability of one of the political parties to reach a clear majority and the ability to form a stable coalition bloc.
The bottom line, a month less than a day before the big moment, is that everything is still open.
The 103fm survey was conducted yesterday (Tuesday) among 558 actual respondents out of 2,909 members of the Panels Politics online panel. The survey was conducted on a representative sample of the adult population in the State of Israel aged 18 and over, both Jews and Arabs, and was calculated using accepted statistical methods. The sampling error is 4.3 percent.
