About three weeks ago, I wrote a number of reasons why Israel is not engaging in a ground maneuver in Rafah. To be honest, even I didn't expect it to take so long. The IDF has already prepared all the plans for the operation, but the cabinet and the prime minister have not yet given the final approval to get underway.
During wars, there are moments of shuffling. More than once, the temporary lull gives renewed strength for the next onslaught. But when the shuffling becomes a continuous thing, it often leads to the end of the war. This time, it seems that someone fell in love with a concept that was correct only at the beginning.
When shuffling turns into procrastination, things only get more complicated.
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Here are some problems with the delay in the ground maneuver in Rafah, which is only getting worse:
- The State of Israel contradicts itself
Since the beginning of the war, all the war leaders have been explaining with good taste that the hostages can only be returned by increasing military activity in Gaza. There are many who argue with the statements of the heads of the establishment, but this is the fate of political decisions; for every decision, there will be a few people who will think differently. However, one thing is clear: the position of the War Cabinet and the government must be clear and consistent. After it has been explained to all of us that the Gazan people act only with force and power, it does not make sense for them to proceed in Rafah lazily and dragging their feet, which sends confusion and fear to the enemy.
- The international hourglass is running out.
In the Jewish state, every war is linked to an international hourglass that begins to tick from the very first day of the war. Many wars have stopped here with a sour and bitter taste only because we were forced to end them halfway.
In the current war, the State of Israel has been given the green light and plenty of time to act as it sees fit in Gaza. In the past month, the international hourglass has almost run out. Most European countries are already openly talking about stopping the war, and even the US is no longer helping its little friend as it used to. If we had started the maneuver in Rafah, it would have been difficult for the countries of the world to stop it. Now that everything is stuck, international pressure is exploding in our faces. It can be said that we have lost the positive international momentum. Stopping the arms shipments and the speeches against Israel are just the beginning.
- The internal crisis is only getting worse.
We all remember the terrible chaos over legal reform. At the beginning of the war, it seemed for a moment that everything was behind us. Most of the country's citizens mobilized to help and assist the soldiers who were drafted and the bereaved families. When the Israeli government decides to fumble in the Strip, it is a trigger for Netanyahu haters to jump on the hate bandwagon and set the country on fire again.
I am not naive and I do not think that if there had been a maneuver in Rafah now, the left's violent demonstrations would not have taken place, but there is no reason to give fuel to the anarchists on the left. The shuffling is fuel for the division that the left is trying to force on us again.
- How poor the relatives of the kidnapped are.
I have spoken more than once with families of hostages, many of whom agree with the position of the Prime Minister and the Minister of Defense and support a ground maneuver in Rafah at high intensity and without interruption - as long as the hostages are not harmed. Now that the forces in Gaza are quite depleted and the maneuver in Rafah is not in sight, I often hear from them the just argument: "Why don't we continue with all our might." Unfortunately, I can't answer them.
I reiterate what I have said more than once. In my assessment, there will ultimately be one entry or another into Rafah. The Prime Minister, the Minister of Defense, and the Chief of Staff are still determined to carry out the maneuver even if it leads to diplomatic friction with the Americans, but it seems that the good momentum for a powerful entry into Rafah has dissipated.
