Will the high threshold, along with increased participation in the elections, leave small parties out?
Matti Tochfeld, the political commentator for Israel Hayom, writes in a commentary column that he published that the political candidates are eyeing the various sectors, which according to various estimates may tip the scales. At the same time, the candidates are examining the participation rates in specific sectors that will likely have the power to decide which bloc will obtain the coveted 61 seats.
The most talked about sector in these elections is the Arab sector. The Joint List split once again, just before the lists were closed, and combined with the withdrawal of Ra'am the previous time, the joint list with Hadash and Ta'al was left with only one list.
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Tochfeld writes that throughout the months of the campaign, there was an assessment that the Arab public was discouraged and not interested in participating in the elections this time, and since the split in Balad, it seemed that its chances of passing the threshold were almost nonexistent. However, in recent days, it seems, there has been some kind of reversal in the participation rates of Arabs, and the various parties are reporting that there seems to be an awakening in the sector, and that Balad could pass the threshold at the last minute.
""If the three parties pass, the right-wing bloc's chances of receiving more than 60 seats drop dramatically," writes Tochfeld. The latest estimates show that Balad is on the rise, while Hadash-Ta'al is on the decline. Ra'am, according to all estimates, passes the threshold and remains at 4 seats.
In the previous elections, the participation rate of the Arab population was estimated to be around 44.61% of the total. The Left Bloc hopes, and is working to ensure, that the percentage of participation in the Arab population will be at a similar rate, or perhaps even higher. If it drops below 401%, it is most likely that not all three Arab parties will pass.
According to birth and natural increase data, the Haredi parties were supposed to climb in the number of seats, but the static number that has persisted for quite a few years shows that many in the sector do not vote for them, or do not vote at all.
In the last elections, the participation rate of the ultra-Orthodox sector was about 791%, and the right-wing bloc fears that this time it may drop to a number closer to only 701%.
Since the dissolution of the Knesset, Netanyahu's campaign strategy has been based on canvassing the Likud strongholds - not with the intention of presenting the movement's path as righteous or bringing in a new audience, but rather to ensure that traditional Likud voters would come to the polls in larger numbers than last time. To this end, the party headquarters identified the "golden polling stations" where the Likud was winning by a significant margin but where the turnout was low, and Netanyahu reached them through the "Bibi Ba" initiative almost every evening.
According to estimates, the voting rate in the development cities in the last elections was approximately 621%, and in the "Likud" cities - Ashdod, Ashkelon, Be'er Sheva, Hadera, Holon and Netanya - approximately 591%.
Tochfeld writes that "Netanyahu's goal is to raise the voter turnout in these cities and other cities such as Bat Yam and Tiberias to more than 651% - in order to increase the voter turnout for Likud as well as the overall number of voters, which could push left-wing parties below the threshold.".
""Just for comparison: in the established central cities such as Givatayim, Hod Hasharon, Modi'in-Maccabim-Reut, Kfar Saba, Ra'anana and Ramat Gan, the voting rate in the last elections was about 691%.
Another sector that participates in relatively high rates is the residents of Judea and Samaria. Last time, about 72.41% of residents with the right to vote voted in the settlements.
Recently, Netanyahu, along with the head of the Samaria Regional Council, Yossi Dagan, as well as activists such as Avichai Boaron and others, embarked on projects that would encourage voting among Judea and Samaria settlers.
