38 days to the elections: The Maariv-Sofeshavau poll indicates that if the elections for the 25th Knesset were held today (Friday), the Netanyahu bloc would strengthen and reach 60 seats, while the Netanyahu opposition bloc would weaken to 56 seats.
The survey also shows that the joint list of Hadash-Ta'al of Ayman Odeh and Ahmed Tibi receives only 4 seats, as does Ra'am led by Mansour Abbas, while Balad crashes below the threshold with only 1.21% of the vote.
And this is the full picture of the mandates from the survey, conducted by the Panels Politics Institute under the direction of Menachem Lazar:
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Likud leads the way and gains 2 seats to 33. Yesh Atid, led by Yair Lapid, loses a seat and drops to 24.
The state camp led by Benny Gantz is floundering with 12 seats. The number of seats is matched by Religious Zionism-Otzma Yehudit led by Smotrich and Ben Gvir, which is gaining strength in the mandate and rising to 12.
In the Haredi sector: Shas, led by Aryeh Deri with 8 seats, and United Torah Judaism, led by Yitzhak Goldknopf with 7 seats - remain unchanged.
At the bottom, where battles for survival are being fought, the swing continues: Labor, led by Merav Michaeli, is strengthening and rising from 5 to 6 seats, while Meretz, led by Zehava Galon, remains with 5. For Avigdor Lieberman's Yisrael Beiteinu, a red light should come on, as the party is dropping from 6 to 5 seats.
The joint list of Hadash and Ta'al, led by Ayman Odeh and Ahmed Tibi, is paying the price of the split from Balad and is dropping from 6 to only 4 seats, thus equaling Ra'am, led by Mansour Abbas, also with 4 seats.
The redistribution of votes as a result of the fall of Balad strengthens the bloc of Netanyahu supporters and brings it to 60 seats – which is still not enough for a decisive victory – compared to 56 for his opponents.
Below the threshold is the Jewish Home led by Ayelet Shaked, which weakened from 2.2% to only 2%, which indicates that the apology it asked for from its public of supporters did not really help its chances.
Another sign of Hadar Mukhtar's weakening, who is apparently paying the price for her entanglement in the story of the apartment she owns. The list of young people on fire headed by her drops from 1.5% to only 0.7%.
The Economic Party, led by Prof. Yaron Zelikha, receives 0.5%, while the Economic Freedom Party, led by Abir Kara, and the Green Leaf List and Forbidden Al-Islamiya register a figure of 0.0%.
In the last Knesset elections, the general voter turnout was 67%, while among Israeli Arabs it was a low of only 45%. According to the survey data, the general voter turnout will be maintained and may even increase. However, the figure that only 38% of Arabs are certain that they will go to vote and another 22% think they will, indicates a decline in voter turnout in the sector towards only 40%, a trend that strengthens Netanyahu's bloc and weakens his opponents.
The survey was conducted by 715 members of the Panel4All online research panel. The survey was conducted on a representative sample of the adult population in the State of Israel aged 18 and over, both Jews and Arabs. The survey was conducted on September 21-22, 2022. The maximum sampling error in this survey is 3.7%.
