A survey by the Panels Politics Institute, led by Menachem Lazar, for 'Ma'ariv-Sofshavau', published this morning (Friday), shows a tie between the 'Netanyahu bloc' and the current government bloc - with both obtaining 57 seats.
Safe swimming in the sea: everything you need to know about spending time at the beach
According to the data, if the elections were held today (in parentheses is the distribution of seats in a previous poll), the Likud led by Netanyahu would receive 34 (36), Yesh Atid led by Yair Lapid 21 (20), Religious Zionism 9 (10), Blue and White 8 (8), United Torah Judaism, which lost a seat in the previous poll to Ben-Gvir - 7 (6), Labor 7 (7), Shas 7 (7), the Joint List 6 (6) and Yisrael Beiteinu 5 (5).
Want more news, videos and stories? Join the Haredim 10 WhatsApp channel >>
Yamina, led by Naftali Bennett, who lost the premiership to Yair Lapid, is recording an impressive drop from 7 seats in the previous poll to just 4, close to the blocking percentage. Meretz 4 (0) can draw some encouragement from its resurgence on the map of seats, but it is still dangerously close to the blocking percentage, as is New Hope, led by Saar 4 (4) and Ra'am 4 (4), despite the stability in the polls.
The emerging picture for the blocs is a tie of 57 - an increase of 2 seats for the coalition and a decrease of 2 seats for the opposition, with the coalition in the middle with 6 seats.
Several parties are losing votes in the current poll compared to the previous one conducted on June 20, immediately after Bennett and Lapid's announcement of their intention to dissolve the Knesset: Yamina loses 3 seats; Likud loses 2 seats and Religious Zionism loses 1 seat.
Other parties are strengthening in the current poll: Meretz passes the threshold (compared to 2.71% in the last poll); Yesh Atid and United Torah Judaism are each strengthening in terms of a mandate.
Most of the fluctuations are due to the redistribution of votes in light of Meretz's transition. Still, there is a movement of votes from Yamina to Likud and Religious Zionism. Incidentally, a quarter of Yamina voters don't know who they will vote for this time.
There is also a movement of votes from Likud to Religious Zionism and from Religious Zionism to Torah Judaism. The final result of the mandates is a combination of vote shifts and Meretz entering the mandate table.
The parties whose voters are most confident in their decision about who to vote for are United Torah Judaism, Shas, and Likud. The parties with the most "fragile" voting are Yamina, Yisrael Beiteinu, Labor, and New Hope.
When looking at the averages of the blocs, we see a clear difference between 73% absolute confidence of the voters of the opposition parties compared to only 38% of the voters of the current coalition parties.
Among Arab party voters, the absolute confidence percentage stands at 501%.
The overall percentage of undecided people in the current survey is 13.11%.
The survey was conducted with 727 respondents, representing a representative sample of the adult population in the State of Israel aged 18 and over. The data was collected using the Panel4All online panel. The survey was conducted on June 22-23, 2022. The maximum sampling error in this survey is 3.31%.
