Kantar CEO, Dudi Hasid, has been covering election campaigns for 20 years and is responsible for a sample of Kan News that will be published tomorrow (Tuesday) at 10:00 PM on Kan 11, Kan News on Digital, and Kan Reshet B.
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He said the 2021 elections are going to be more difficult to predict than the previous ones. "There are several parties that are close to the threshold and can greatly influence the map of seats and blocs," he explained on Kan News.
Hasid points out another challenge for pollsters: "Because of the pandemic, there are going to be a lot of duplicate envelopes. These are envelopes from people who did not vote at the polling station where they are registered, and then we cannot sample them at the polling stations and predict their vote.".
The pandemic has added additional difficulties for pollsters: There are going to be 300,000 duplicate envelopes of confirmed patients who are in isolation. In addition, the Corona guidelines have led to the splitting of polling stations. So it is more difficult to decide which polling station to put pollsters in for the sample.
How does it actually work?
Hassid explained the Kantar Institute's sampling process: In the first stage, 50 polling stations are selected that best represent voting patterns in the State of Israel. They are selected according to geographic and sectoral distribution that will reflect voting throughout the country - from the north to the south, from the Arab sector to the Haredi sector.
Next, mock polling stations are set up, located next to the selected polling stations. They look exactly like real polling stations, with ballots, envelopes, and a ballot box.
Canter personnel are stationed at polling stations and try to convince voters who have finished voting to enter the sample ballot and vote there as well. Typically, three out of four voters at the polling station comply with the request.
""The votes in the sample ballots are counted during the day and that's how the picture of the situation begins to take shape. The votes are counted manually and fed into our digital system," explains Hasid. "The most important count takes place at 8:00 PM. This is the final count before the sample that is shown on television at 10:00 PM. Of course, we continue to sample after 8:00 PM to check if there are no major changes.
""At 10:00 PM, when the polls close, we begin to receive the true count of the votes in the real polls. That is, wherever we placed sample ballots, we will receive the true results. This allows us to present corrections in the television sample around 1:00 AM.".
According to him, during the last three election cycles and on all channels, the 1:00 AM result had a very high level of accuracy.
Hasid still remembers the moment he realized that being a pollster was what he wanted to do in life. "I was a 10-year-old boy during the 1984 elections. I watched the Channel 1 sample until the end, and then I told my father that I wanted to be Mina Tzemach when I grew up.".
In the 2019 second-term elections, Hasid was the most accurate pollster.
How do you do it?
""It's a collaboration of an entire team, from the operational level to data analysis. We're trying to select a few sample polling stations that will reflect as accurately as possible the true vote across the country.".
And what does he like most about his job? "The action and the adrenaline.".
And what doesn't he like? "That not everything depends on me.".
