Four days before the polls open: A recent poll of mandates by Maariv Sofashava indicates a deadlock - which, based on current data, makes the task of forming a government almost impossible.
According to the survey conducted by the Panels Politics Institute, led by Menachem Lazar, if the elections were held today (Friday), the Netanyahu bloc would win 49 seats, and the "Only Bibi" bloc would win 57 seats.
Yamina receives 10 seats in the poll, while Ra'am, which is trying to create a smokescreen regarding its intentions, receives 4 seats.
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According to the mandate picture, in order for Netanyahu to succeed in forming a government, he will need both Bennett's support and the votes of Ra'am, an imaginary coalition that includes Itamar Ben-Gvir and Mansour Abbas. On the other hand, the 'Not Netanyahu' bloc must include both the 'Shared Party' and Yamina in order to form a government - a scenario that is also imaginary by all accounts.
Netanyahu, who is once again plowing the length and breadth of the country, is reaping the fruits of his labor and rising in the current Maariv poll to 30 seats, compared to 27 in the previous poll. .
Netanyahu, who is jumping by three seats, 'drinks' two seats from New Hope and one from his right.
Yesh Atid, led by Yair Lapid, remains the second largest party, but loses a seat and drops to 19.
Yamina, led by Bennett, also loses a seat compared to the previous poll and gains 10 seats in the current poll.
New Hope, led by Gideon Sa'ar, continues its weakening trend and falls to a low of 8 seats, compared to 10 in the previous poll.
Each of the following parties also receives 8 seats: Yisrael Beiteinu, Shas, and the Joint List.
United Torah Judaism only gets 6, as it loses a mandate to Smotrich. Smotrich's Religious Zionism gains a mandate and rises to 5.
Benny Gantz's Blue and White also increases its mandate to 5, just like Labor led by Merav Michaeli.
In the survival battles at the bottom: Meretz and Raam are very close to the threshold with 4 seats each. Raam depends largely on the percentage of votes on election day, while Meretz is in a kind of balance of terror against the Labor Party on the one hand and Yesh Atid on the other.
72% of the survey participants said they were certain they would vote in the upcoming Knesset elections (and another 20% said they would probably vote).
These numbers could indicate a fairly high voter turnout, according to Arik Bender, Knesset correspondent for Maariv - around 70%.
Religious Zionist voters are the most likely to vote (88%), followed closely by Shas voters (87%).
It is important to note the relatively low percentage of United Torah Judaism voters - only 661% of them are certain that they will go vote, an unusual figure for an ultra-Orthodox party, and this is also reflected in the decline in the party's number of mandates in the current survey.
At the bottom of the list are the Arab parties, especially the Joint List, with an especially low percentage of its voters who are certain they will go to vote (49%).
Bender notes that any of the smaller parties that fail to pass the threshold could completely change the picture. For example, if one or two of the left-wing parties fail to pass the threshold, Likud will almost certainly be able to form a government with the help of Bennett's right wing, who will become the king of kings.
So in the real test, on Election Day next Tuesday, everything could still change.
The survey also examined the suitability for the prime ministership 'head-to-head': Netanyahu 45% versus Sa'ar 41%. Netanyahu 51% versus Lapid 37%. Netanyahu 41% versus Bennett 41%.
The survey was conducted yesterday with 1,001 members of the Panel4All online research panel. The survey was conducted on a representative sample of the adult population in the State of Israel aged 18 and over, both Jews and Arabs. The maximum sampling error in this survey is 3.2%
