How did MK Oren Hazan reach 30th place on the Likud list and why did the Likud members, who knew that Hazan was a problematic person, not place another candidate in the Likud's youth slot?
Conversations with Likud activists indicate that the desire to push Shai Malka - an associate of former MK Moshe Feiglin - off the Likud list for the 20th Knesset is what led to Oren Hazan becoming the Likud candidate in 30th place.
Hazan entered the Knesset on the youth representation slot, which was also contested by Malka, who was Feiglin's advisor in the 19th Knesset and served as CEO of Jewish Leadership.
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In the primaries held on December 31, 2014, Hazan won 5,986 votes and Malka won 5,068. Both received a much lower number of votes than Pinchas Idan, or Michai Ratzon, for example, but the commitment in the Likud constitution to include young people on the list in place 30 - catapulted Hazan to the rank of the most famous MK.
As the Israeli public saw in Amit Segal's investigation - and also before that in a series of articles published by Yuval Karni on Channel 10, and also here on the blog - even the career of a young person who is at the beginning of his journey can be examined and tested before he enters the Knesset. His actions testify to him.
In fact, the Likud was aware of the young cantor's character and exploits. So much so that in the days leading up to the closing of the names of the candidates for the primary lists, hurried phone calls were made among well-known activists in the movement - perhaps they knew of a third young man or woman, neither cantor nor Malka-Fasol-Feiglin - who could present himself as a worthy candidate for the 30th spot?
A Likud activist I spoke with told me that he also received a call in the 90th minute asking him to help the movement's senior officials with the task of selecting candidates.
Hazan, it turns out, initially wanted to run for the reserved seat for the Shephelah region (16th on the Likud list for the Knesset). This is the Likud's largest and most significant district, with a huge number of functional members (Rehovot, Rishon LeZion, Lod, Ramla, Ashdod).
But this is the kingdom of MK David Bitan (he got over 6,000 votes there, and more in regional primaries). The people of the Shephelah district dissuaded the young cantor from the idea, and convinced him to focus on the 30th place, even though in December 2014 it was seen as unrealistic.
Meanwhile, the tables have turned. Likud won a landslide - and Hazan became the Likud's official headache.
On Tuesday afternoon, Knesset Speaker Edelstein and Opposition Chairman Herzog announced that it had been decided to suspend Hazan from his position as Deputy Speaker of the Knesset, and that the opposition would allow the coalition to offset - presumably to dry up Hazan in the 20th Knesset.
According to the opposition, this arrangement is temporary for the next week only. After that, the Likud will have to deal with it alone, because according to activists who know Hazan, he has no intention of vacating his position. On the contrary, he may benefit from the public attention and demand to be a minister or deputy minister in the next round.
The Hazan family for generations, including Hazan's mother, Aviva Hazan - is a very well-known family in the Likud.
No one there has any intention of giving up their hold on the 30th seat in the Knesset. Hazan Jr.'s plan, backed and pushed by his parents, was to crown himself the legislative champion of the 20th Knesset. To legislate as much as possible, to bicker publicly as much as possible.
All the way to a ministerial position in the government next time.
What will happen in Likud?
What is going to happen in the internal Likud struggle - and in the vote on Sunday?
The battle over the structure and nature of the Likud list may change.
The group of regional Knesset members - Bitan (16), Zaki Levy (18), Yoav Kish (19), Amsalem (21), Zohar (22), Koren (28) and Mazuz (29) - will strive for the arrangement of the Knesset list to be completely different.
According to the Likud constitution, each of the above new MKs will no longer be able to run on the district list, and will have to prove themselves on the national list.
So, what is their immediate interest?
The places reserved for the districts will be moved as far down the list as possible. If possible, somewhere above 25th place, in contrast to their high position in the last elections - starting from 16th place.
This way, the competition between Amsalem, Bitan, Levi and the rest against the Likud veterans on the national list will be more comfortable.
MK Amsalem (Jerusalem District) has been leading a movement for years to return power to the Likud center. He wants 3,600 people to rank the list for the Knesset.
But Netanyahu opposes this.
Science Minister Danny Danon, who was elected chairman of the center a few years ago, ran an entire campaign on this issue – and promised center members that he would work to cancel the primaries and return power to the party center.
They believed him.
And what is Danon's position today? Hmmm. He's less interested. His head is deep in science and space. He no longer feels like engaging in street fights with the Prime Minister.
Israel Katz, who has enjoyed Amsalem's backing and support for years, is also careful not to get too excited about the move.
In practice, most Likud members serving in the Knesset are very careful not to publicly oppose the prime minister. All of them, except Amsalem.
Amsalem has been traveling around the country in recent weeks, hugging everyone who needs it. A desire that Rabi from Netanya supports. Uri Fareg is also hopeful. And also someone who previously ran for the women's slot on the Knesset list, Keren Barak - a central and prominent activist in Likud, who is considered very close to Amsalem.
A glimpse into the level of emotions and anger within the activists' WhatsApp groups came to me this week.
The interesting thing is that in Likud, all the debates are personal. They haven't talked about policy for a long time. Power to the center members or functionaries, for what? Does anyone there know where Prime Minister Netanyahu is heading? Is anyone from within the movement trying to challenge Netanyahu regarding his views? Nada.
It all boils down to the positioning of one or the other to 30th or 16th place and the concentration of political power in the hands of candidates.
