1.
The on- or off-the-record battles seem like something that fuels the political system in the background, like the flickering of a broken streetlight on a dark night. What good does a streetlight do to us? After all, we wake up in the morning and there is sunlight.
But not like that. It interferes with the cornea.
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Yesterday, Finance Minister Yair Lapid sat down and said (on record): 'Everything is stuck and Netanyahu is standing on the sidelines.'.
From the Likud side, for the third or fourth time this week, leaks have trickled down in the name of 'senior Likud officials.'.
What's the point? Do they have something to say? This is the party that has been running the country for six years. Let them say it. Everyone understands who the senior briefing is. If all these seniors from here and there would speak on the record, then perhaps the entire discourse would be more sane and proper from the start, and would not deteriorate the relationships between politicians (note: the unnecessary background briefings that go out in widely circulated text messages are not an invention of the Likud, and they are not the only ones who do this).
2.
What about the Governance Law?
It has not yet come into effect, but according to all the polls that are showing, with 7-8 groups of factions of between 10-15 seats (say: Labor, Meretz, Kahlon, Liberman, Lapid, Shas/United Torah Judaism, Hadash/Tibi, Ta'al) and another 2 factions of 15-20 seats (say, Bennett + Netanyahu) - the government is going to take a crushing blow.
What is governance anyway? The ability to govern. But the ability to govern, that's how all political scientists who summarize this crazy fiasco of raising the electoral threshold will have to say - will come from the personality of the governor and not from the system.
A person who does not know how to govern, that is, manage the country, no law will help him. I suggest that we stop blaming the system and trying to constantly replace the system. Instead, find better methods of management and governance with the existing system.
Reminder: These things were written and mentioned in the days before the vote on raising the threshold, which is the Governance Law or in effect the law to exclude Arab factions.
3.
An interesting survey was published in Haaretz this morning.
First, the results in the survey in terms of the distribution of voters were cut according to the new threshold, 3.25% (I verified this).
Second, the general public has not yet digested this change, and since it is impossible to predict voter behavior on election day – casting a ballot is an emotional, momentary matter – every survey should be taken with a grain of salt, and in any case, it only provides information today regarding the day it was conducted and not beyond.
Third, Haaretz newspaper points to a trend of declining support for Prime Minister Netanyahu. I must say that I have seen this in recent months, but I did not write about it because I was not convinced that this was truly a stable trend.
Here are some examples:
Immediately after the war, polls were published that indicated a decline in support for the prime minister. This was because the Protective Edge War was very long and, in any case, there is something unfair in a poll conducted among bombed civilians. Therefore, these results were taken as temporary and not as something indicating a trend.
But as mentioned, recently, and with all the events in Jerusalem, it seems that Netanyahu is falling in the polls on his suitability for prime ministership (while the Likud is more or less stable at 24-26 seats).
In October, a survey was published on Channel 10 with a worrying finding for Netanyahu – 451% of the people do not want to see him as prime minister again (Camille Fox).
In early November, Channel 2 published a survey, in which 51% of people were dissatisfied with his performance on the issue of Jerusalem (Millward Brown Combination). In the same survey, Dr. Olynyk notes that precisely after Netanyahu's speech at the UN, and against the backdrop of satisfaction in Israel with the way Netanyahu is confronting the Americans, his support rose to 55%.
However, this increase during the holidays was temporary, and only 30% were satisfied by early November.
On Globes last Thursday – Netanyahu only with 33% (Rafi Smith).
And today, Haaretz (Camille Fox) – Netanyahu with 35% support.
Disclaimers:
Disclaimer 1: The surveys are not the same. Each one asks something different, and in fact it is not possible to put all of this on one table, because it is comparing apples to oranges, as they say, and not an exact comparison.
At the same time, all the pollsters note that, compared to the tests they conducted in the past in their cars, there is a decline in support, and that Netanyahu is at a low point.
Caveat 2: The decline in support also comes from the right and is reflected in the increase in support for the Jewish Home faction. In other words, it is not exactly a pendulum that has moved to the left.
4.
Having said all that we have said above regarding Netanyahu, there is one statistic that may have escaped the public's attention. In both the suitability survey for the premiership published on Thursday in Globes (Rafi Smith), and in Haaretz's morning poll, opposition leader Yitzhak Herzog receives 15% and 17%, respectively. This is unprecedented for him, and considering the fact that he presents himself as an alternative to a veteran, incumbent, security-minded prime minister, it is certainly not obvious.
Before the war, Herzog reached his best day at 13-14%, and during the war his status eroded and deteriorated. The public did not see him as an option.
Fox's morning poll with 17% is really a novelty for him. Yachimovich has not managed, throughout her entire campaign, to climb there. On the other hand, it must be said that Herzog also has more luck than leadership charisma. It seems that more than people see him as a leader, people are simply fed up with Netanyahu. Six years is enough.
The essential element for Herzog is the fact that he leapfrogs the others in both polls - Bennett (6% or 12%), Lieberman (8%), Lapid (7% or 6%).
By the way, if the good results for Herzog are not reflected in the growth of seats for the Labor Party, then it has no meaning. In other words, Labor continues to falter with 14-15. Not really helpful.
5.
One last point regarding Shas's decline in the polls - this morning with a low of 6 seats, which is even less than United Torah Judaism.
In the previous election campaign, MK Aryeh Deri took a stand and repeated throughout the campaign that he supports Netanyahu for prime minister and that there is no chance of anything else. This hurt him twice. First, who would vote for a party that announces from the outset who the winner is, and doesn't try to explain to people that it's important to vote for them?
For the second time, Netanyahu didn't count him after the elections.
After the elections, in an interview with Plog (and probably elsewhere), he openly admitted that he had made a mistake.
Is Deri now repeating the mistake once again? How will a decision to close something with Netanyahu for the 20th Knesset help him get Shas back on its feet?
6.
And having said all that, elections are now bad for Israel. Everything is stuck. The politicians are busy 24/7 with off-the-record briefings (see section 1), instead of doing things for the country. Governance is bad now and will be worse later, and in the meantime the cost of living continues to rise, apartment prices are skyrocketing, and here we will have another six months plus of non-governance.
