The big drama in the left bloc: In the race for prime minister, Gadi Eisenkot overtakes Bennett by a huge margin

Survey data conducted by the Direct Polls Institute, headed by Tzuriel Sharon, and published this evening (Thursday) on the i24 channel, indicates that the political system is stuck, as none of the blocs is able to obtain 61 seats to form a government.

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'The 'Netanyahu bloc' receives 60 seats, while the parties in the bloc opposing him receive only 49 seats. The Arab parties receive 11 seats.

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However, according to Direct Falls, the coalition bloc is in a negative moment due to disappointment over the war in Lebanon.

In terms of party breakdown: Likud leads with 30 seats, while in the battle for leadership of the left bloc, a decision is in sight as the 'Yashar' party, led by Gadi Eisenkot, becomes the second largest force with 16 seats. Immediately following it is the 'Behad' party, led by Naftali Bennett, which receives 14 seats, while the 'Democrats' party registers a double-digit figure of 10 seats.

The Yisrael Beiteinu and Shas parties maintain stability with 9 seats each. At the far right of the map, Otzma Yehudit and United Torah Judaism receive 8 seats each, while Religious Zionism with 5 seats.

Ra'am records an achievement of 6 seats, and the Hadash-Ta'al list is content with 5 seats.

Several well-known parties failed to pass the threshold and were left out, including Blue and White led by Benny Gantz, which received only 1.41% of the votes, Yoaz Hendel's Reservists Party with 0.81%, Prof. Yaron Zelicha's Economic Party with 1.11%, and Balad, which received 2.51% of the votes.

Distribution of mandates:

Likud 30, Yeshar 16, Together 14, Democrats 10, Shas 9, Yisrael Beiteinu 9, United Torah Judaism 8, Otzma Yehudit 8, Ra'am 6, Religious Zionism 5, Hadash - Ta'al 5.

The most notable change from the previous mandate survey was recorded in the Democratic Party segment, which rose from 9 to 10 mandates.

Gadi Eisenkot and Naftali Bennett lose one seat each: 'Yashar' drops from 17 to 16 seats, and 'Behad' retreats from 15 to 14 seats.

The Religious Zionist Party is recording a critical recovery, rising from 4 seats to 5 seats, a figure that moves it somewhat away from the risk of reaching the electoral threshold.

The Shas movement, on the other hand, is losing strength and dropping from 10 seats to only 9 seats. The Yisrael Beiteinu party is showing a strengthening trend and rising from 8 seats to 9 seats.

On the question of suitability for the role of Prime Minister: Benjamin Netanyahu opens a significant gap and shows clear support with 46% support from the entire sample. Gadi Eisenkot comes in second with 32% support, a figure that illustrates his becoming the undisputed leader of the Netanyahu opposition bloc, while Naftali Bennett is behind him with 15% support. The remaining respondents, who constitute 7%, answered that none of them are suitable or chose another candidate.

According to the data, in the coalition bloc, Netanyahu enjoys an 86% match, while in the center-left bloc, a real reversal is taking place: Eisenkot jumps to 61% against Bennett, who drops to only 26%. A gap of almost 2.5 times.

Interpretation:

Zuriel Sharon, CEO of Direct Falls, published his interpretation of the results on the institute's X account:

When you look at the general map of mandates in recent weeks, it's easy to get lost in the usual background noise. The current coalition is experiencing a significant weakening, that's no secret anymore, and the Israeli public, including large segments of the right, is showing increasing dissatisfaction with the way the war in Lebanon is being conducted and what is happening in the north. This is creating a slow, but consistent erosion of Netanyahu's base.

But the real political drama of recent weeks is not just in the loss of Likud's mandates - but in the question of who will lead the alternative camp.

Here we are exposed to an amazing statistic that shatters the unity that claimed to lead the center-left camp: on the question of suitability for the prime ministership within the center-left bloc, Gadi Einkot leads Naftali Bennett by a huge margin of 61% versus 26%.

What does this statistic actually tell us? Two important things:

1. The opportunity that Netanyahu's weakening creates: Eisenkot's story is directly connected to the war in Lebanon. As long as Netanyahu's bloc was strong and cohesive, the question of "who leads the center-left" was theoretical. But as the right weakens and the possibility of a change of government turns from an election slogan into a realistic scenario, center-left voters become more and more strategic. They look around to see who can take seats from Netanyahu, and most of them seem to be placing the chips, at least for now, on Eisenkot.
2. The center-left's problem with trust in Bennett: Bennett hopes that the center-left has "forgiven" him for his past on the ideological right and as CEO of the Yesha Council, thanks to his time as Prime Minister of Change. This is probably true, but the gaps in alignment with Eisenkot show that this is not enough. As soon as there is an alternative like Eisenkot, the center-left's votes automatically return home. They are willing to accept Bennett as a senior partner, perhaps as defense or finance minister, but have less faith in him as a candidate who can defeat Netanyahu in the race for prime minister.

The bottom line is, if this trend continues, as it is also reflected in the mandate polls and the loss of momentum for Bennett-Lapid, Lapid's call for Eisenkot to join him and Bennett will depend on the question of whether Bennett will agree to be someone's number 2.

Time will tell.

The sample was collected and compiled by Direct Polls Ltd., headed by Tzuriel Sharon, for the i24NEWS channel, on June 3, 2026, using a digital system combined with a panel, among 515 adult respondents (18+) who constitute a representative sample of the general population in Israel. The statistical sampling error is ±4.3% with a probability of 95%.