A survey conducted by the Direct Polls Institute and published on the i24 channel presents particularly surprising data.
The survey also examined the possibility of new connections on the political map between Gadi Eisenkot and Yair Lapid, alongside the establishment of a new right-wing party led by Ofer Winter, Dedi Simchi and Amir Avivi.
According to the data, if the elections were held today, the Likud party would record an impressive achievement with 34 seats, while the main opposition parties would completely collapse.
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According to the survey, Yesh Atid, led by Yair Lapid, receives only 2.91% of the vote, and Blue and White, led by Benny Gantz, receives 2.61% of the vote - which leaves both parties below the threshold.
The void in the opposition is filled by the Bennett 2026 party, which receives 14 seats, the Joint List with 14 seats, Gadi Eisenkot's Yeshar party, which surprisingly receives 11 seats, and Yair Golan's Democrats Party with 9 seats. Avigdor Lieberman's Yisrael Beiteinu receives 8 seats.
On the other hand, Netanyahu's bloc is establishing a stable majority of 64 seats consisting of Likud, Shas with 10 seats, United Torah Judaism with 8 seats, Otzma Yehudit with 8 seats, and Religious Zionism, which passes the threshold with 4 seats.
The coalition with 64 seats, Yesh Atid and Blue and White are erased from the map - and Eisenkot's strengthening: i24NEWS poll with the unification of the parties that could change the entire political map | Full data >> https://t.co/ug7T5OVsPO@NadavElimelech # CabinetFifth with @rothdanielle pic.twitter.com/PcAG2sj5zZ
— i24NEWS (@i24NEWS_HE) February 20, 2026
The survey also examined the possibility of a union between Eisenkot's Yesh'ar party and Lapid's Yesh Atid, as well as the establishment of a new right-wing party led by Ofer Winter, Dedi Simchi and Amir Avivi.
In such a case, the situation changes significantly: Likud is still in the lead with 32 seats, a united party of Yesh Atid and Yesh Atid will bring an impressive achievement of 16 joint seats. The Joint List remains with 14 seats, 'Bennett 2026' drops to 12 seats, Shas remains with 10 seats, United Torah Judaism, Yisrael Beiteinu and the Democrats each receive eight seats. Ben-Gvir's Otzma Yehudit receives 7 seats. A new right-wing party led by Ofer Winter, Dedi Simchi and Amir Avivi will bring 5 seats.
In such a situation, those who do not pass the threshold are Blue and White, Religious Zionism, and the Milomanik Party.
According to this scenario, the right-wing bloc will receive only 62 seats, and 58 seats for the opposition.
From the survey data, it can be seen that Ofer Winter's right-wing party is taking the voters away from Smotrich. In addition, although at this stage the Yesh Atid party does not pass the threshold because of Eisenkot - a connection between the two would cause them to pass Bennett's party.
The coalition parties will have to think about how the division will be carried out on their side, when there is no room for additional parties - who will take votes from others, such as Smotrich. The big change will come when the parties reach a combination of small parties, and not large ones like Blue and White in the 2019 elections.
The sample was collected and compiled by Direct Polls Ltd., headed by Tzuriel Sharon, for the i24NEWS channel, on February 18, 2026, using a digital system combined with a panel, among 535 adult respondents (18+) who constitute a representative sample of the general population in Israel. The statistical sampling error is ±4.2% with a probability of 95%.
