Poll: Netanyahu jumps to 36 seats; 69% satisfied with policy toward Iran

May 11, 2018   

A new poll published this morning by the newspaper Maariv suggests that if the Knesset elections were held today, the Likud led by Netanyahu would jump to 36 seats, compared to the 30 it had in the 20th Knesset. According to the poll, conducted by the Panels Politics Institute, Yesh Atid led by Yair Lapid is far behind with 17 seats. The Joint List receives 12 seats in the poll, more than the Zionist Camp led by Avi Gabbay, which collapses to 10 seats. The Jewish Home led by Naftali Bennett receives 9 seats, United Torah Judaism - 7, Kulanu led by Moshe Kahlon - 7, Yisrael Beiteinu led by Defense Minister Avigdor Lieberman receives 6, just like in the current Knesset, and so does Meretz. According to the poll, the security situation is not negatively affecting Orly Levy-Abekasis, who is shaping up to be the surprise of the upcoming elections. Even though its agenda is primarily social, it receives 6 seats in the poll, even before it has even presented a list. At the bottom of the seat map is Shas, led by Aryeh Deri, with only 4 seats. The poll also examined what would happen if former Chief of Staff Benny Gantz, who this week said he does not rule out joining the ranks of the Likud, were to head the Zionist Union. In such a case, the Likud would continue to lead safely with 35 seats, but in second place there would be a reversal: the Zionist Union, led by him, would receive 17 seats at the expense of Yesh Atid, which would drop to only 14. In such a scenario, the immediate victim is Levi-Abekasis' party, which drops to only 4 seats, as does Shas. Regarding the political map as a whole, according to the first option, the right-wing bloc and the ultra-Orthodox obtain 62 seats - even without Kulanu. In a scenario in which Gantz heads the Zionist Camp, the right-wing bloc and the ultra-Orthodox have a majority of 61 MKs without Kulanu and 67 with it. The survey also shows that a large majority of the public is satisfied with the way Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is managing the government's policy regarding the Iranian presence in Syria and the Iranian nuclear project. At the same time, the majority of the public believes that the escalation on the northern border will escalate to the point of war with Iran. The survey, conducted last Wednesday - before the extensive Israeli attack in Syria and the launch of Iranian rockets towards the Israeli border - shows that 54% of the public believe that a direct military confrontation between Israel and Iran is approaching. 18% are certain of this, and 36% assume that the likelihood of this is quite high. In contrast, about 43% of the public reject such a possibility. However, more than half of the public - 54% - agrees with the statement recently made by Israeli political figures that "if we are destined for a military conflict with Iran, it is better for it to happen now rather than at a later stage." In this context, 54% of the public are concerned about the situation on the home front and believe that it is not sufficiently protected for a possible military conflict with Iran. The vast majority of the public - 69%, is satisfied with the way Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is managing Israeli policy regarding Iran's presence in Syria, and a similar proportion - 65% - is satisfied with the way Netanyahu is managing Israeli policy regarding the Iranian nuclear project. In both cases, the rate of dissatisfaction is the same, at 21%.