{"id":1068483,"date":"2026-05-10T17:04:05","date_gmt":"2026-05-10T14:04:05","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ch10.co.il\/?p=1068483"},"modified":"2026-05-10T17:23:21","modified_gmt":"2026-05-10T14:23:21","slug":"%d7%91%d7%91%d7%a0%d7%a7-%d7%94%d7%a4%d7%95%d7%a2%d7%9c%d7%99%d7%9d-%d7%aa%d7%95%d7%94%d7%99%d7%9d-%d7%9c%d7%9e%d7%94-%d7%94%d7%a9%d7%a7%d7%9c-%d7%9e%d7%aa%d7%97%d7%96%d7%a7-%d7%94%d7%a8%d7%99","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ch10.co.il\/en\/news\/1068483\/","title":{"rendered":"The bank simply doesn't understand: Why is the shekel strengthening? After all, everything has changed for the worse here."},"content":{"rendered":"

In the weekly summary of Bank Hapoalim economists, they wonder: <\/strong>The rate at which the shekel has strengthened in the past year is extraordinary \u2013 191.3% against the US dollar. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Yad L'Achim's annual lottery has been launched for the 16th time - and you? You're winning big! \u2022 Promoter<\/mark><\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Since the first days of the war in October 2023, the shekel has strengthened by about 30%, and also compared to the days before the war began, the shekel has strengthened by about 25%. It is difficult to put your finger on a factor that changed the Israeli economy from end to end during this period, and if there were any changes, they were mostly negative, according to the bank. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

The fiscal situation has worsened, public debt has increased, and defense spending is expected to weigh on taxpayers in the coming years. Proposed changes to the judicial system are still pending, and Israel's international standing has not improved. The current account surplus of the balance of payments has been maintained.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bank Hapoalim economists think the strengthening of the shekel stems from investors and assets: What has changed? The sharp increases in exchange rates in the financial markets have made Israelis richer, and the balance of assets minus Israel's liabilities to the world continued to rise even during the war years. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Total assets, net of liabilities, including real investments and securities portfolios, reached $263 billion at the end of 2025, compared to $220 billion on the eve of the war. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

This wealth does not usually translate into large foreign exchange conversions, unless the increases in foreign exchange rates are particularly sharp, or investors decide to reduce their exposure to foreign currencies and sell foreign exchange. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is more or less what has been happening in recent months. In parallel with the markets breaking records, institutional investors have decided to reduce their foreign exchange exposure abroad. Although institutional investors operate in a competitive market, there are usually no large gaps in their asset allocation and foreign exchange exposure, and so it turns out that everyone moved in the same direction and sold foreign exchange. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the last three quarters, institutional investors sold foreign exchange worth about $30 billion. Such volumes cannot be absorbed in the foreign exchange market without a significant appreciation. Add to this the receipts from the Waze transaction amounting to about $32 billion, a small portion of which was probably also converted into shekels.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

These are the immediate suspects in the strengthening of the shekel. Ostensibly, these are not structural factors that are expected to have an impact over time, as there is a limit to how much institutional investors will reduce exposure abroad, and huge transactions like Waze's do not happen every year. The speed with which the shekel has strengthened also creates a kind of herd effect and increased selling of foreign exchange by players who did not plan to do so, which exacerbates the trend.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

How close are we to the point where the Bank of Israel intervenes in trade? In the past, the Bank of Israel intervened in trade mainly under the diagnosis of "market failure" - for example - the Corona led to a diversion of investments to Israel, which was perceived as safer. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Developed countries are less likely to intervene in the foreign exchange market, although it does exist: countries like Japan and Switzerland still sometimes intervene in the foreign exchange market. Governor Yaron referred to the intervention option and said, \"The FX tool is part of the toolbox of the Bank of Israel. We have many tools for facilitating our policies.\" In other words, purchasing foreign exchange is another tool that can be used to achieve the Bank of Israel\u2019s goals.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The first tool the Bank of Israel will want to use will be interest rates, and at current exchange rate levels, there is a high chance that interest rates will decrease by a quarter of a percent towards the end of the month. The direct impact of this on the exchange rate is not expected to be large, but it is a signal to the markets. If the same herd effect of selling foreign currency continues to strengthen the shekel, we believe that the Bank of Israel will use another tool from its toolbox and will also purchase foreign currency.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

What else supports an early interest rate cut \u2013 the price index for April is expected to be high (1.3% in the bank's forecast, which is all bad from its perspective). In the second half of May, after the April index is published, a sharp decline in inflation expectations is expected, to a level significantly lower than 2%. Expectations will be affected by the appreciation of the shekel and perhaps also by estimates that oil prices will fall. The inflation environment will therefore also support an interest rate cut. The markets are now pricing in two interest rate cuts in the coming year and, in the longer term, a reduction to a level of 3.25%. This will stabilize interest rates at a level lower than that of the US.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The 10-year yield gap between Israel and the US is approaching 50 basis points. The opening of the gap came mainly from yields in Israel, which have fallen since the ceasefire agreement at the end of March. The decline in yields was apparently affected by the appreciation of the shekel, which is leading to expectations of a faster reduction in interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Estimates in the world<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The ceasefire between the US and Iran has been in place for over a month, but tensions around the Strait of Hormuz continued over the past week with isolated naval incidents and mutual threats. <\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Oil prices fell during the week (the price of a barrel of Brent crude oil fell by about $121 to about $100) amid expectations of diplomatic progress and attempts to reopen shipping lanes, although futures continue to predict that oil prices will remain high in the coming months.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The American consumer is responding pessimistically to the consumer confidence survey, but that does not deter him from investing in the stock market, which continued to rise this week. The decline in oil prices supported positive sentiment in the stock markets, and most stock indexes around the world continued the upward trend recorded since the beginning of April.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/strong>In the US, the Nasdaq rose by 4.51% in the past week and the S&P 500 rose by 2.31%. US stock indices have risen sharply since the beginning of April and have since recorded a cumulative increase of approximately 221% and 131% respectively. In Europe, the Euro Stoxx 50 index rose by 0.51%, the CAC index in France remained approximately unchanged, and the DAX index in Germany rose by 0.21%. Stock market gains were also recorded in Asia. In China, the Shanghai index rose by 1.71%, in Japan the Nikkei index rose by 5.41%, and in India the Nifty index rose by 0.71%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

USA: The US consumer confidence index plunged to its lowest level ever amid the surge in fuel prices.<\/strong> The University of Michigan\u2019s preliminary estimate of the consumer confidence index for May 2026 fell more than expected, to 48.2 points. The decline this month was due to a decrease of about 5 points in the current situation index, while the expectations index recorded a slight increase. One-year inflation expectations moderated slightly to 4.5% compared to 4.7% the previous month, and expectations for the five- to ten-year horizon fell to 3.4% from 3.5% in April. The decline in the index was mainly affected by the sharp increase in fuel and energy prices, along with concerns about the impact of tariffs and the cost of living. Pressure on households is increasing in light of the sharp increase in fuel prices, which this week crossed an average level of $4.50 per gallon \u2013 for the first time since July 2022 \u2013 and have risen by more than 50% since the outbreak of the war with Iran.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Economic indicators in the US point to continued expansion. <\/strong>The ISM Services PMI was about unchanged in May at 53.6, indicating expansion in activity. Factory orders rose 1.51% in March and durable goods orders rose 0.81%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

US labor market: The number of jobs rose beyond expectations, but the participation rate continues to decline. <\/strong>The number of jobs in the economy increased by 115,000, above Bloomberg forecasts for an addition of 65,000 jobs. The unemployment rate remained unchanged at 4.3%, along with a slight decrease in the participation rate to 61.8% \u2013 a level that is about 1.5 percentage points lower than the pre-corona period and significantly lower than historical highs (a participation rate of 67% in the early 2000s). The contribution of the service sectors led the increase in employment, led by the health sector, where about 37,000 jobs were added, as well as the transportation and storage sector. On the other hand, decreases were recorded in the information sector and the federal government. Data for previous months were cumulatively revised downward by about 16,000 jobs. At the same time, there was a sharp increase of 445,000 in the number of part-time workers for economic reasons, indicating some softening in the quality of employment despite the stability of the unemployment rate. Average hourly wages rose by 0.2% in April, below expectations, and the annual rate increased by 3.6%. Overall, the data indicate a stable labor market, characterized by a moderate hiring pace, limited labor supply and moderate wage pressures \u2013 a picture that supports the Fed\u2019s wait-and-see approach and reduces pressure for interest rate cuts in the short term.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

US real estate market data for March 2026 indicated a mixed picture. <\/strong>New home sales rose 7.41% to an annual rate of 682,000 units, above expectations, while building permits fell sharply 111% to an annual rate of 1.37 million units \u2013 a relatively low level. The increase in sales is estimated to reflect, among other things, price adjustments and incentives from contractors, along with limited supply in the existing housing market. On the other hand, the decline in building permits indicates increasing caution on the part of developers in the face of a high-interest environment and rising construction costs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Last week, US government bond yields were stable, but they are still high relative to the past year. <\/strong>The yield on the 10-year US Treasury bond fell slightly to 4.35%, after already rising to 4.44% at the beginning of last week. The five-year yield remained relatively stable at 4.01% and the two-year yield remained at 3.89%. The US capital market expects stability in the Fed rate until the end of the year, and gives a low probability of about 30% for a 0.25% increase in interest rates at the beginning of 2027.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Economic activity in the eurozone presented a mixed picture.<\/strong> The manufacturing PMI rose to 52.2 in April, while the services PMI fell to 47.6 from 50.2. The Sentix Investor Confidence Index rose slightly in May, but remained low compared to the past. Retail sales also fell 0.11% in March, slightly below expectations, and have risen only 1.21% over the past 12 months.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A jump in the producer price index. <\/strong>The producer price index rose in March, as expected, at a high rate of 3.4%, mainly due to a 11.1% jump in energy prices. Excluding energy, prices rose by only 0.5%. The annual rate rose to 2.1% from 3.0% in the previous month.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

European capital markets still expect interest rate hikes, albeit slightly more moderate ones. <\/strong>The market is now pricing in between two and three interest rate hikes by the end of 2026, compared to three a week ago, with the first hike, to a level of 2.25%, expected with a probability of about 80% already in the upcoming decision in early June.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"In the weekly summary of Bank Hapoalim economists, they wonder: The rate at which the shekel has strengthened in the past year is extraordinary \u2013 19% against the US dollar. Yad L'Achim's annual lottery has been launched for the 16th time - and you? Profiting from the N.K.! \u2022 Since the first days of the war in October 2023, the shekel has strengthened by about 30%, and also in relation to the days before the war began, the shekel [\u2026]","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":934154,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[4],"tags":[66290,66289],"class_list":["post-1068483","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-4","tag-66290","tag-66289"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\n\u05d1\u05d1\u05e0\u05e7 \u05e4\u05e9\u05d5\u05d8 \u05dc\u05d0 \u05de\u05d1\u05d9\u05e0\u05d9\u05dd: \u05dc\u05de\u05d4 \u05d4\u05e9\u05e7\u05dc \u05de\u05ea\u05d7\u05d6\u05e7? \u05d4\u05e8\u05d9 \u05d4\u05db\u05dc \u05d4\u05e9\u05ea\u05e0\u05d4 \u05e4\u05d4 \u05dc\u05e8\u05e2\u05d4 - \u05d7\u05e8\u05d3\u05d9\u05dd10<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/ch10.co.il\/en\/news\/1068483\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"\u05d1\u05d1\u05e0\u05e7 \u05e4\u05e9\u05d5\u05d8 \u05dc\u05d0 \u05de\u05d1\u05d9\u05e0\u05d9\u05dd: \u05dc\u05de\u05d4 \u05d4\u05e9\u05e7\u05dc \u05de\u05ea\u05d7\u05d6\u05e7? 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