Yad L'Achim's annual lottery has been launched for the 16th time - and you? You're winning big! \u2022 Promoter<\/mark><\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\nThis did not prevent the shekel from continuing to strengthen slightly against the US dollar, and the stock indices from breaking a new record. The story here is not only local, the 500P&S also broke a new record, and the stock indices in Europe are not far from the peak.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
There is probably a common factor pulling the markets up, ignoring factors like energy prices that have caused significant upheavals in the past or geopolitical crises. It also cannot be attributed to interest rates, because the markets no longer see interest rate cuts worldwide in the near term. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
So what could explain this burst of optimism? <\/p>\n\n\n\n
Bank Hapoalim experts estimate that a possible explanation is the large budget deficits, which in one form or another translate into an increase in the financial wealth of households, fueling the increases in the financial markets.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
If this were the only reason, then it is likely that we would also see high inflationary pressures worldwide, but in reality inflation is quite stable, so other factors are probably at work as well.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
A second factor that can explain the optimism is technology, and especially AI, which raises expectations for companies' future profitability, so that even though the markets are breaking records, the future earnings multiple remains at a reasonable level. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
In reality, both factors probably have an impact to one degree or another.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The data for the month of war (March) has begun to flow in \u2013 credit card purchases fell this month by 11.91% compared to February (seasonally adjusted). <\/p>\n\n\n\n
Experts estimate that April largely made up for March, with purchases increasing by approximately 10%. Total purchases in the first quarter were approximately 5% lower than the previous quarter.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Labor market data for March showed a jump in the number of people absent from work for economic reasons to a level of approximately 592 thousand people. The official unemployment rate was very low and stood at 2.51%, but if we were to also count those temporarily absent from work (for example, on unpaid leave), we would get an unemployment rate of 15.81%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Opposing forces affect inflation, and this complicates the Bank of Israel's decision. On the one hand, the sharp appreciation of the shekel is moderating price increases, while on the other hand, rising fuel prices, the global environment, and the risk of renewed war are increasing inflation risks. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
The derivatives market expects inflation at a rate of about 21% in the coming year, but the level of certainty in this number is low - renewed fighting may change the picture, and there is also a question mark surrounding the policy of the new government that will be established, and whether it will choose to raise taxes in order to reduce the deficit. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
From the perspective of the foreign exchange market, the Bank of Israel would probably be happy to reduce the interest rate, but from the perspective of inflation, it might be better to wait, especially since even in the US there are no expectations of an interest rate cut this year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The next interest rate decision is on May 25. By then, the April price index, which is expected to rise by a high of 1.3%, will be behind us, and if the ceasefire holds, we are likely to see a rapid decline in market expectations for inflation. In this scenario, the rate cut will be this month. As fighting resumes, the rate cut will be postponed. Markets are expecting one rate cut this year and another in the first half of 2027.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Institutional investors believed in a strong shekel, and their belief also worked to strengthen the shekel. The rate of exposure of institutional investors to foreign exchange fell by three percentage points from the end of 2024 to February. A rapid reduction in exposure is reflected in increased foreign exchange sales by institutional entities, which in fact also led to an actual appreciation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
And in the world<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\nTensions in the Middle East and fears of renewed fighting in Iran have kept oil prices high, with the price of a barrel of Brent once again exceeding $110. At the same time, year-end price forecasts have risen to around $86, reflecting expectations of only a partial moderation in prices. The markets reacted with limited intensity to the announcement of the UAE\u2019s departure from OPEC, a move that was seen as having limited immediate impact, but one that weakens the organization\u2019s ability to manage supply in the medium to long term and adds to uncertainty in the oil market.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Last week, there was a mixed trend on stock markets around the world. Moderate price increases were recorded in the US. The S&P500 index rose by 0.91% last week, the Nasdaq index rose by 1.11%. In Europe, the Euro Stoxx 50 index remained unchanged, the DAX index in Germany rose by 0.61%, while the CAC index in France fell by 1.41%. In Japan, the Nikkei index fell by 0.31% for the week, while in China the Shanghai index rose by 0.51%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
In the first quarter of 2026, the US economy grew at an annual rate of 2.01%, following a low growth of 0.51% in the fourth quarter of 2025, reflecting a moderate recovery from expectations of around 2.31%. Growth was largely driven by investments, which surged at an annual rate of 8.71%, mainly due to continued investments in artificial intelligence infrastructure. Private consumption grew at a moderate rate of 1.61% (compared to around 1.91% in the previous quarter), evidence of erosion in household purchasing power. Exports rose at an annual rate of 12.91%, but imports surged at an even higher rate of 21.41%, partly due to demand for equipment and investments. Government spending grew by 4.41%, mainly due to an increase in payroll spending in the federal government after the government shutdown ends at the end of 2025.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Current economic data in the US indicated a mixed trend. The Conference Board's consumer confidence index for April recorded a slight increase, slightly above expectations, to 92.8, but the index level is still very low compared to the past. The increase this month was recorded in both the current situation index and the expectations index. The ISM manufacturing purchasing managers' index remained approximately stable at 52.7 points, indicating an expansion in activity. The price component of the index rose for the fourth consecutive month to a high level of 84.6 points, a level close to that recorded during the Corona period.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The PCE index rose 0.7% in March and the core index rose 0.3%. Over the past 12 months, the core inflation rate has accelerated to 3.2% from 3.0% in the previous month. Personal income rose 0.6% in March, compared to expectations for an increase of 0.3%. Personal spending rose 0.9%, and real spending only 0.2%. US labor market data showed a modest improvement. The number of new claims for unemployment benefits fell to 189,000, below the four-week average of 208,000, and the number of ongoing claims fell to 1.78 million.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The US real estate market has seen a cooling in prices alongside a slight increase in supply. The Case-Shiller index for the 20 largest US cities indicated a slight monthly decline in February, and the rate of increase in housing prices over the past year has moderated to only 0.9% (0.7% nationwide). At the same time, construction starts jumped by 10.8% in March to an annual level of about 1.5 million units, the highest since December 2024, but building permits fell at a similar rate to record lows. This combination likely reflects the realization of projects that have already been approved in the past, alongside increasing caution on the part of developers, against a backdrop of high interest rates, price erosion, and uncertainty about future demand.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
At Powell's last meeting as Fed Chairman, the interest rate remained unchanged, as expected. In a decision on April 29, 2026, the Fed left the interest rate unchanged in the range of 3.51%\u20133.751%, against the backdrop of inflation that is still higher than the 21% target, due in part to a sharp increase in energy prices, as well as geopolitical uncertainty resulting from the war in the Middle East. The Fed emphasized the balance between the risk of continued inflation and the risk of a slowdown in growth and the labor market, and therefore preferred to wait. The decision was accompanied by an unusual internal dispute: one member supported a reduction in interest rates, and three others agreed to leave the interest rate unchanged but opposed language suggesting a tendency for future easing. As mentioned, Jerome Powell ended his term as chairman but remained a member of the Board of Governors. From the market perspective, the move was seen as a stabilizing factor. The capital market is currently pricing No change in interest rates over the next year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
In summary, the trend of a moderate increase in US government bond yields continued last week. The ten-year US government bond yield rose last week to 4.37% from 4.30%. The five-year yield rose to 4.018% from 3.91%, and the two-year yield rose to 3.88% from 3.77%.
<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Eurozone - Moderate growth than expected in the first quarter of this year. A first estimate of growth data for the first quarter of 2026 indicated moderate growth than expected of approximately 0.6% in annual terms. There was a high variation in growth data among the member states of the Eurozone. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
In Germany, GDP increased by 1.31%, and in Spain, high growth of 2.51% was also recorded in the quarter. On the other hand, in Italy, moderate growth of 0.71% was recorded, and in France, GDP remained approximately unchanged.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Eurozone inflation remains high. Eurozone consumer inflation expectations rose sharply in March amid the Iran war and the sharp rise in energy prices. According to the European Central Bank\u2019s monthly survey of consumer expectations, consumers expect inflation to be 41.3% over the next 12 months (up from 2.51% in February) and 3.01% over the next three years, above the ECB\u2019s target. This is also in line with actual inflation data. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
According to the first estimate of data for April, the consumer price index rose by 1.01% and annual inflation in the eurozone rose to 3.01%, compared to 2.61% in March, mainly due to a jump of about 111% in energy prices. The core price index rose by 2.21% in this period, compared to 2.31% in the previous month.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Interest rates in the eurozone remain unchanged, but it appears that this will not be the case for long. Last week, the European Central Bank left interest rates unchanged, stressing that the risks to inflation and growth have increased, mainly due to the energy shock from the war in the Middle East. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
In the press conference that followed, President Christine Lagarde added a slightly more hawkish tone, noting that the possibility of raising interest rates was also being discussed. According to estimates by economists and research bodies, the ECB is expected to raise interest rates once or twice in the coming year, a more moderate scenario compared to the three rate hikes by the end of the year that are currently priced in by the capital market.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Talks between the US and Iran are not progressing and the chances of another campaign against Iran have risen in the past week. Yad Laachim's annual lottery has been launched for the 16th time - and you? Profiting from the lottery! \u2022 This coefficient did not prevent the shekel from continuing to strengthen slightly against the US dollar, and the stock indices from breaking a new record. The story here is not only local, the 500P&S also broke [\u2026]","protected":false},"author":53,"featured_media":450730,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[4],"tags":[66183,66182],"class_list":["post-1066005","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-4","tag-66183","tag-66182"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\n
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