{"id":1038470,"date":"2026-01-08T20:58:21","date_gmt":"2026-01-08T18:58:21","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ch10.co.il\/?p=1038470"},"modified":"2026-01-08T21:02:15","modified_gmt":"2026-01-08T19:02:15","slug":"%d7%a9%d7%9c%d7%9e%d7%94-%d7%a4%d7%99%d7%9c%d7%91%d7%a8-%d7%9e%d7%a1%d7%91%d7%99%d7%a8-%d7%90%d7%aa-%d7%94%d7%97%d7%99%d7%93%d7%94-%d7%9c%d7%9e%d7%94-%d7%99%d7%a9-%d7%9b%d7%96%d7%94-%d7%a4%d7%a2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ch10.co.il\/en\/news\/1038470\/","title":{"rendered":"Shlomo Filber explains the riddle: Why is there such a gap between Channel 14&#039;s polls and the samples on other media channels?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><strong>One question repeats itself over and over again for every politics enthusiast<\/strong>: How is it possible that there is such a significant gap between the results of the polls published on Channel 14 and the samples on other media channels? <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>On the &quot;Sofshavau&quot; program this evening (Thursday), commentator Shlomo (Momo) Filber presented an in-depth analysis that seeks to put an end to speculation and explain the numbers behind the controversy over the size of the right-wing bloc.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-video is-provider-youtube wp-block-embed-youtube wp-embed-aspect-16-9 wp-has-aspect-ratio\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<div id='fwdevpDiv0'><\/div>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>The gap: about 10 seats in dispute<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>According to Filber, the gap began to open in early 2023, amid legal reform and protests, and stabilized at about 10% \u2013 equivalent to about 10 seats or about 380,000 voters. While other pollsters claim that the right lost these seats, Channel 14 presents that the bloc remains stable.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The test, which was based on a comparison between the poll averages of the main channels (Keshet 12, Reshet 13, Kan 11, Maariv and Israel Hayom) and Channel 14, revealed a surprising finding: in 10 of the 12 competing parties - there is no gap.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The data shows that in all coalition parties - except Likud, and in all opposition parties - except Bennett&#039;s party, the numbers are completely identical among all pollsters. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Moreover, the total number of seats for the Likud and Bennett&#039;s party together stands at 42 seats in all polls. &quot;The whole debate is whether the Likud lost 9 seats to Bennett, or whether they remained in the right-wing bloc as we claim,&quot; Filber emphasized.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong> Where did the Likud voters go?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>To decide the question, the polling institute conducted a huge study among 870 respondents, all of whom declared that they voted for the Likud party in the 2022 elections. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The results refute the &quot;Great Abandonment&quot; theory:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u2022 90% of the respondents stated that they would vote for Likud again.<br>\u2022 4% are moving to other right-wing parties.<br>\u2022 3% are still undecided.<br>\u2022 Only 41% (about one and a half seats) declared that they would vote for the opposition parties - Bennett, Lieberman, or Eisenkot.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Filber noted that in the past the percentage of those leaving the opposition was higher and reached about 15% (4.5 seats), but today the trend has reversed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>The myth about the loss of trust in Netanyahu<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Contrary to the interpretations heard in the studios, according to which the right-wing public believes that Netanyahu is guilty of the October 7th failure and is unworthy of continuing in office, the in-depth survey among Likud voters from 2022 presents the opposite picture. According to the data, 95% of Likud voters in 2022 give full confidence in Netanyahu even at the beginning of 2026.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The bottom line of the analysis indicates that the shift from Likud to the opposition amounts to less than one and a half seats. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>On the other hand, Likud is strengthening with 2-3 seats coming from other sources - the return of Gideon Saar voters and right-wing voters who previously supported Gantz and Lapid - which offsets the small departure.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Filber: &quot;There is no other vote pool on the right that can contribute 9 seats to Bennett \u2013 not the Haredim, not Smotrich, and certainly not Ben Gvir. The seats that the other pollsters give Bennett are &#039;virtual&#039;. They have not left, they are still in the right-wing bloc today, and they are the ones who give the government the majority today as well.&quot;.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Filber posed a challenge to his colleagues: &quot;I invite all other media outlets and their polling institutes to conduct a similar survey and present the results, so that we know whether 10 seats actually left the bloc or not.&quot;.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"\u05e9\u05dc\u05de\u05d4 \u05e4\u05d9\u05dc\u05d1\u05e8 \u05e6\u05dc\u05dc \u05dc\u05e0\u05ea\u05d5\u05e0\u05d9\u05dd \u05d5\u05de\u05e6\u05d9\u05d2 \u05d4\u05d5\u05db\u05d7\u05d5\u05ea: \u05d1-10 \u05de\u05ea\u05d5\u05da 12 \u05d4\u05de\u05e4\u05dc\u05d2\u05d5\u05ea \u05d0\u05d9\u05df \u05db\u05dc\u05dc \u05e4\u05e2\u05e8 \u05d1\u05d9\u05df \u05db\u05dc\u05dc \u05d4\u05e1\u05d5\u05e7\u05e8\u05d9\u05dd \u2022  \u05de\u05e6\u05d1\u05d9\u05e2\u05d9 \u05d4\u05dc\u05d9\u05db\u05d5\u05d3 \u05de-2022 \u05de\u05d1\u05d9\u05e2\u05d9\u05dd \u05d0\u05de\u05d5\u05df \u05de\u05dc\u05d0 \u05d1\u05e0\u05ea\u05e0\u05d9\u05d4\u05d5 \u2022 \u05db\u05de\u05d4 \u05de\u05e0\u05d3\u05d8\u05d9\u05dd \u05e2\u05d6\u05d1\u05d5 \u05d0\u05ea \u05d4\u05dc\u05d9\u05db\u05d5\u05d3 \u05d5\u05db\u05de\u05d4 \u05d7\u05d3\u05e9\u05d9\u05dd \u05d4\u05d2\u05d9\u05e2\u05d5? \u05d5\u05d4\u05d0\u05dd \u05e9\u05d0\u05e8 \u05d4\u05e1\u05d5\u05e7\u05e8\u05d9\u05dd \u05de\u05e2\u05e0\u05d9\u05e7\u05d9\u05dd \u05dc\u05d1\u05e0\u05d8 \u05de\u05e0\u05d3\u05d8\u05d9\u05dd '\u05d5\u05d9\u05e8\u05d8\u05d5\u05d0\u05dc\u05d9\u05d9\u05dd'?  \u2022 \u05d4\u05e0\u05ea\u05d5\u05e0\u05d9\u05dd \u05d4\u05de\u05dc\u05d0\u05d9\u05dd \u2022 \u05e6\u05e4\u05d5","protected":false},"author":53,"featured_media":941677,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[32352,43902,21442],"class_list":["post-1038470","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-1","tag-32352","tag-43902","tag-21442"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.1.1 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>\u05e9\u05dc\u05de\u05d4 \u05e4\u05d9\u05dc\u05d1\u05e8 \u05de\u05e1\u05d1\u05d9\u05e8 \u05d0\u05ea \u05d4\u05d7\u05d9\u05d3\u05d4: \u05dc\u05de\u05d4 \u05d9\u05e9 \u05db\u05d6\u05d4 \u05e4\u05e2\u05e8 \u05d1\u05d9\u05df \u05d4\u05e1\u05e7\u05e8\u05d9\u05dd \u05e9\u05dc \u05e2\u05e8\u05d5\u05e5 14 \u05dc\u05d1\u05d9\u05df \u05d4\u05de\u05d3\u05d2\u05de\u05d9\u05dd \u05d1\u05e9\u05d0\u05e8 \u05e2\u05e8\u05d5\u05e6\u05d9 \u05d4\u05ea\u05e7\u05e9\u05d5\u05e8\u05ea? 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