Deri and the landslide in the polls

Sherry Roth
November 1, 2014   
Aryeh Deri found the culprit for Shas' steep decline in the polls: Pollster Menachem Lazar • Tal Schneider thinks Deri should ask himself a little deeper questions
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While the Shas party has been declining in the polls in recent months and is standing at around 7-8 seats, party chairman MK Aryeh Deri found the culprit: Menachem Lazar, a member of Panels Politics whose polls appear on the Knesset Channel, but also in other media outlets.

Deri was recently interviewed on IDF Radio andBlatantly accused Lazar:

Barkai: "Aria, if this were a reverse poll, you wouldn't say that this is not the role of the Knesset Channel. This is a completely objective poll...""

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Deri"Not objective, this pollster... this issue is under investigation... this pollster is a man who worked - and still works - with Bennett and is connected to Bennett, he does polls online and our public has no connection to the internet, so every time Mr. Bennett gets 18 seats there and ours... there are two approaches today. .. Today almost all pollsters work based on the internet.".

Whether the stranger was aware of this or not, I don't know. But in English there is a familiar slang expression that fits the situation:

"ROFL"

i.e:

Rolling on the Floor & Laughing. (- Translation: Rolling on the Floor & Laughing)

Panel Politics' polls have been accused in the past of being heavily biased in the direction of Meretz. In fact, throughout the election campaign in early 2013, and especially in the months leading up to it in late 2012, Panels' polls predicted that the Meretz party would double in power. From three seats to six seats. While Meretz appeared in other newspapers with 3-4 seats, Panels was perceived as "leftist" by the pollsters.

There were also those who gave a background explanation for this: they only poll online and therefore their results are biased towards the young. The end of the story is known, Meretz really did win 6 seats in the Knesset and Zar was actually quite accurate.

I myself usually pick up the phone with Lazar here and there and consult with him. The fact that he wears a knitted kippah did not at any point hint at or influence his opinions.

Really? I have no idea. The conversations with him focus on the effectiveness of surveys in the Internet age, when some homes don't have landlines, and how to achieve precise national segmentation, when people only have cell phones anyway.

Deri needs to ask himself a little deeper questions at this stage, regarding the results for the general public.

The first (and main) question is, is it possible that all surveys, whether panel or otherwise, Unable to cope at all Today with the consequences of raising the threshold.

Second, where is Shas's public of supporters? Are they tired of the squabbles within the party? Do they see Kahlon as the next savior and decide to give their feelings and support to a person they perhaps believe will truly address the problem of the cost of living and real estate?.

And the third and perhaps most difficult question of all – why doesn't Deri himself, who was once the great hope, seem more attractive to his electorate?


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