Survey data conducted by the Direct Polls Institute and published this evening (Thursday) on Channel 14 shows that if the elections were held today, despite the political upheaval this week, the map of mandates would remain almost the same.
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The polls indicate that the Likud, led by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, will receive 33 seats - thus weakening in terms of seats compared to last week.
Following Likud are Yisrael Beiteinu, led by Avigdor Lieberman, with 17 seats, while the Democrats, led by Yair Golan, have 15.
According to the survey, the Shas party has 10 seats, followed by United Torah Judaism and the State Camp with 8 seats each. Minister Ben Gvir's Otzma Yehudit has 7 seats, strengthening its mandate from last week. The Religious Zionist Party has 6 seats, and Yair Lapid's Yesh Atid has only 6 seats.
At the bottom of the list are the Arab parties Ra'am and Hadash-Ta'al with 5 seats each. The Balad party continues to fail to pass the threshold and will stand at 2.31% of the total votes.
In terms of the division into blocs, the five coalition parties will receive a total of 64 seats, while the opposition parties will receive 46 seats, in addition to 10 seats for the Arab parties, as in the previous poll.
Mandates picture – including the 'Bennett 2026' party'
This week, the poll also examined the mandate picture if the 'Bennett 2026' party were to run for the Knesset. In such a case, the 'Likud' party would receive 32 seats, followed by the 'Democrats' party with 14 seats and Bennett's party with 14 seats.
In such a scenario, the fourth largest party in the Knesset would be Shas with 10 seats, and Avigdor Lieberman's party would be left with only 9 seats.
''Hadot HaTorah will receive 8 seats, Otzma Yehudit with 7 seats and the State Camp with only 6 seats.
At the bottom of the list will be Yesh Atid, Religious Zionism, Ra'am, and Hadash-Ta'al with 5 seats each. Even in such a scenario, the Balad party will not pass the threshold.
In terms of the division into blocs, if Bennett runs, the coalition parties will receive only 62 seats, while the opposition parties will have 48 Knesset members, in addition to 10 seats for the Arab parties.
Suitability for the Prime Ministership
Corresponding to the Prime Minister:
48% of those surveyed prefer Benjamin Netanyahu, compared to 22% for Yair Lapid and 30% who do not support either of them.
In the contest against Benny Gantz, Netanyahu receives 48%, Gantz receives 18%, and 34% answered "none of them.".
Against Avigdor Lieberman, Netanyahu receives 48%, Lieberman 33%, and 19% support neither of them.
In addition, the suitability for the prime ministership was examined between Netanyahu, who has the support of 471% of respondents, and 351% of respondents support Naftali Bennett. 181% of respondents do not support either of them.
Finally, when we examined who was most suitable to serve as Prime Minister among all the candidates, 49% of those surveyed preferred Benjamin Netanyahu, 26% chose Naftali Bennett, 12% preferred Avigdor Lieberman, 9% Yair Lapid, and 5% Benny Gantz.
The sample was compiled by Shlomo Filber for Channel 14 Now on May 22, 2025. The data was collected using a digital system from Direct Polls Ltd., among 630 adult respondents (18+) who constitute a representative sample of Israeli citizens. The statistical sampling error is ±4.3% with a probability of 95%.
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