Gantz overtakes Netanyahu, Yair Lapid dives to 9, Ben Gvir leaps

February 1, 2024   

After a Direct Polls poll was published last week, according to which - for the first time since the outbreak of the war - the Likud party overtook the state camp, this week there was another reversal: a new poll conducted by the institute headed by Shlomo Filber shows that Gantz is once again leading the Likud by a significant margin, although the blocs remain the same as in the previous poll. According to the poll - which was conducted on behalf of the Yisrael Beiteinu party - the state camp led by Benny Gantz has 30 seats (26 in the previous poll), while the Likud led by Benjamin Netanyahu has only 23 (27 in the previous poll). Itamar Ben-Gvir's Otzma Yehudit jumps to 11 seats (9 in the previous poll), as does Avigdor Lieberman's Yisrael Beiteinu with 11 seats. Yair Lapid's Yesh Atid plunges to a single-digit figure with only 9 seats (12 in the previous poll). And with the Haredim? Shas with 9 seats (losing one seat from the previous poll), United Torah Judaism with 8 seats (increasing by one seat). Religious Zionism led by Bezalel Smotrich is strengthening with 5 seats (increasing by one seat), Hadash Ta'al with 5 seats, and so is Ra'am. Meretz receives 4 seats in the poll. Below the threshold: Labor with 1.6%, and Balad with only 1.2%. Netanyahu's bloc - 56 (in the previous poll - 57), Center-Left bloc - 54 (in the previous poll - 53). The Arab parties - 10. So what happened this week that caused the upheaval? Shlomo Filber explains: "Since the previous poll of seats that we published last week, events have occurred that change the sentiment and the distribution of seats within each of the blocs, but almost not their size. - The protest against the Knesset's humanitarian aid has intensified and received great media and public exposure. - In addition, a plan for the release of hostages was published, which includes a long truce and the release of murderous terrorists. These two events created criticism of Netanyahu in the right-wing bloc, and caused Ben-Gvir and Smotritz to become stronger, and the Likud to become weaker - some voters became undecided. On the other hand, in the center-left bloc - the campaign by left-wing organizations for elections now is intensifying, creating pressure on Gantz and Eisenkot to resign from the emergency government now. This pressure, combined with the expectation that a new left-wing party will be established ahead of the elections, is causing a double effect in the bloc - the right-wingers who still remain in Yesh Atid are moving to Yisrael Beiteinu and the national camp, and those who lean left have become undecided and are waiting for a new party. This pincer movement is wearing down Lapid to his lowest result this year - for the first time, Yesh Atid is in single digits. "In total, there are currently about 20% undecided in both camps.".