1.
The sudden resignation of Interior Minister Gideon Sa'ar has left behind a host of questions and uncertainties. It is no secret that Sa'ar, during the recent period, and even more so after the presidential elections, in which the candidate he ran against the Prime Minister's advice was elected, has been preparing with all his might for the Likud primaries.
His retirement left a big question mark behind it - if he was prepared, why did he decide to leave so suddenly? Did he suddenly realize he had no chance?
It's no secret that the Likud doesn't usually dismiss sitting prime ministers. Certainly not a prime minister who was successful, even if he wasn't able to unite the turbulent terrain of the Likud. So what did Sa'ar dream about when he was preparing to stand on the starting line? Some say that those around him used to tell him over and over again: 'Run, Sa'ar, run. There's a chance' - because that's what he wanted to hear, and not necessarily because they believed it.
Either way, primaries for the Likud leadership are expected soon.
Who and who will be the contenders against Netanyahu? It is possible that MK Moshe Feiglin will resume his habit of running (although his political patron in the Likud, Minister Yisrael Katz, recently united with Netanyahu), and perhaps MK Danny Danon will also decide to challenge him.
Realistic chances? Not really.
2.
Take, for example, the event where Tagar members gather every year on the eve of the holidays. A group of older Likud members, former Etzel members, the party's founding generation. Netanyahu and the minister usually come to their event, which takes place around set tables. However, if last year only a few dozen people participated, plus a few carefully selected young people (Yaakov Vider, the Likud's ultra-Orthodox, was among them), this year over a hundred young people came. "You can feel the primaries in the air," says one of the Likud seniors, who also "smelled" of elections at this event.
Netanyahu didn't really shine in his speech. He repeated the usual mantras of security, security, economy, economy over and over again. And there was also the story about the Iron Dome (Amir Peretz), for which he ordered the interceptors to be purchased. Since without them it wouldn't work - so the credit goes to him. This story was told by him for the first time at the end of the war, at a joint press conference with Defense Minister Bogy Ya'alon, and has been told over and over again since then...
How forced.
3.
The Haredi creeping (United Torah Judaism and Shas, in this section) towards the Prime Minister is somewhat laughable.
What haven't they said about him over the past year? Every MK and his newspaper attacked Netanyahu, sometimes on the most painful points, while not missing any opportunity. This week, with Sa'ar's resignation, the Haredi press also attacked the prime minister, who provoked this storm.
So how is it that, after all this, the MKs crawl to every meeting they are invited to?
Psychologists are invited to discuss the phenomenon, but it can also be given a political interpretation. The desire to take revenge on Yesh Atid chairman Yair Lapid outweighs the desire to take revenge on Bibi. After all, everyone understands that Netanyahu was a prisoner in Lapid's hands - and that's where all the trouble began.
It is clear to any reasonable person that there is almost no chance that the ultra-Orthodox parties will enter a coalition in the near future. But the very fact that the ultra-Orthodox embrace Netanyahu signals to Lapid that his power is limited. Gone are the days of forming a government, when he was all-powerful - together with his "brother", the chairman of the Jewish Home, Naftali Bennett. Their brotherhood is no longer something, Bennett does not currently veto the entry of the ultra-Orthodox parties into the coalition. Certainly good reasons for concern.
Let us clarify: The Haredi's talks with Netanyahu were mainly not about joining the coalition, but about its support from outside. If and when a crisis arises with Lapid, Netanyahu can be sure that the Haredi will not wait for him with the knife, and will prefer to stab him with the torch.
In the choice between him and Yair Lapid, the in-between Prime Minister of Israel, the Haredi hate the latter more.
And that certainly made him happy.
4.
What, in fact, is the basis of the current conflict between Netanyahu and Lapid?
In a conversation with a senior Likud official, it turns out that Netanyahu is demanding another billion in additional budget funds for a security need that he is not willing to specify. One of the MKs who asked about this replied: "Talk to Elkin, he will explain it to you." Elkin is the chairman of the Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee, but it is likely that he too does not know precisely what security need Netanyahu is referring to. Is this about arming for an attack on Iran? For a renewed attack on Gaza? - who knows.
Since there is no way to increase the deficit in such an irresponsible manner, it seems there is no escape from raising taxes, a step opposed by Lapid, who still wants billions for his zero VAT law.
Hence the blunder.
The compromise, if there is one, could come in the form of a zero VAT approval for a limited period, newspaper headlines and applause for Lapid, and then – his cancellation.
5.
Why, in fact, not go for elections now?
On the one hand, the polls predict that Netanyahu will increase his power. Currently, the Likud has 18 seats, while the lowest polls give it 25 MKs. So on the one hand, the prime minister is not really afraid of the possibility of elections, which allows him good political maneuvering space and a comfortable position.
On the other hand, you know how you start an election campaign, but you'll never know how you'll end it. And as long as Netanyahu sits on the throne of prime minister and lives in a house on Balfour Street - why play with fate?
In contrast, Yair Lapid is in a much less comfortable position. The polls are really not flattering, to say the least, and Netanyahu, it seems, enjoys abusing him on this sensitive point. Is it any wonder that he is winking at the Haredim?
6.
And what about Avigdor Lieberman?
It turns out that not all senior coalition officials are sure that what he says openly in press conferences is also what he believes and means.
Lieberman will not agree to any change in the current coalition, and if anything - then we're going to elections.
Still, there are senior Likud officials who are willing to swear that the foreign minister will not bring down the government under any circumstances. They have heard from him, they testify, that despite his anger at the Haredim (the Jerusalem elections), and that Yaakov Litzman (the man who installed Nir Barkat at the expense of his candidate Moshe Leon) will still pay somehow, the path to revenge does not have to be through exacting a price from all the Haredi parties.
Does this mean that the Haredim are on their way in? Absolutely not. But it does mean that they are on the "outside" that feels like the inside.
All this in the hope that Lapid understands the hints. Indeed, every sense of distress on his part raises the level of happiness of the MKs who have eaten bitterly from his hand since the establishment of the 'Brothers' government.
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