Emergency Authority with a scary scenario: Temperatures of up to 49 degrees in summer

March 26, 2023   

The National Emergency Authority at the Ministry of Defense and the Meteorological Service published today (Sunday) a national reference scenario for extreme weather - heat waves as a result of the climate crisis.

According to the reference scenario, in the summer months - June-September - there may be two severe heat waves per month, lasting 3-4 days, with temperatures of up to 49 degrees.

The Ministry of Defense also warns that peak electricity consumption will increase by 10%, mortality is expected to increase by 8.5% above average, and the average hospitalization due to cardiovascular diseases will be 10%-15% higher.

Also, the chance of fires will increase.

The National Emergency Authority (NEA) in the Ministry of Defense is responsible for formulating the threat map for the civilian space and the reference scenarios for which government ministries and emergency bodies must prepare.

As a result of the increase in climate events in recent years, the Authority and the Meteorological Service have formulated reference scenarios for extreme weather: floods, inundations, and fires - and now an additional reference scenario for extreme heat waves has been published.

A heat wave is defined as one that affects large parts of the country's population or large areas, causing disruptions to the country's regular way of life and significant economic damage, to the point of harming human life. These heat waves require early preparation, coordination, and involvement of several bodies and authorities in order to minimize the damage and return to normal as quickly as possible.

The reference scenario for heat waves is expected throughout the country, with the most extreme conditions generally prevailing in the eastern valleys, and less severe conditions generally prevailing on the mountain peaks.

The expectation of severe heat waves is from June to September. May and October are slightly milder than the summer months. A heat wave event reaches its peak over a period of about 3-4 days, but usually includes about a week and even 10 days warmer than average.

According to the authority, there may even be two heat waves in the same month with a short break in between.

According to the reference scenario, in a heat wave, the temperature on the coastal plain will reach 35 degrees and more than 50% humidity, in the mountains to 42 degrees, in the Negev and northern valleys to 44 degrees, and in the Jordan Valley and Arava to 49 degrees.