""The two missing mandates": How is it that Direct Falls is always different from everyone else?

October 28, 2022   

Since the closing of the lists and the dramatic split in the Joint List, all the polls by the Direct Polls polling company of Shlomo Filber and Zuriel Sharon have given 62 seats to the Netanyahu bloc. This morning (Friday), after the institute's latest poll for the 25th Knesset election campaign was published last night, they are referring to this figure - which is different from all the other polls published in the media.

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""How come you're always different from the others," we're asked over and over again. The truth? We don't enjoy going against the grain. The explanation is completely professional. "Statistics is math," we've said quite a few times. The numbers are indifferent to political positions and are supposed to reflect an accurate picture of the situation. So how the hell are there differences between the pollsters, you ask yourself? The answer lies mainly in the gap that exists in the set of answers that the pollsters analyze. If you collect answers from all strands of the sample, you'll get a complete picture. If you haven't managed to reach every segment of the population, you'll get an incomplete sample. Simple. We've explained in the past the weakness of online panels, so the safe way is to look at the trend line, because if there is a bias in the panel, it will be consistent. Let's show you a small, but significant, example of how these gaps are created: In recent weeks, we've been asked over and over again how it is that Likud receives 34 to 35 seats in our polls, compared to the others who don't cross the 32 threshold? Where did this gap come from and why only here? So get to know the "Likud's two missing mandates." The first is hidden among the veteran immigrants from the former Soviet Union, the first generation - who do not speak Hebrew at all and are certainly not registered on the various panels. Their weight in Israel today stands at nearly 5 seats, most of whom vote for Yisrael Beiteinu, but Likud and Yesh Atid also receive a + seat there. The second seat belongs to the "Abu Yair" phenomenon. Much is said about the Arab voice and the battles between the parties in the Arab sector, but it is important to know that almost 20% of the Arab sector vote for Zionist parties. Likud is currently the largest Zionist party in the Arab sector (in the past, Labor and Meretz competed for the title), so between the 8 to 14 seats that this electorate is worth, there is another fairly stable seat hidden, that of Likud. These two hidden seats, which do not appear on any panel in the world, affect the overall distribution of seats. In the coming days, we are prevented from publishing polls, as you know, the next time we meet will be On the main election broadcast of News 14. A little more patience, in short.