Will Shaked pass the threshold? And why will Lapid crown Netanyahu?

August 5, 2022   

A Maariv poll in collaboration with Panels Politics, published today (Friday), showed that Netanyahu's bloc will receive only 58 seats. Given these results, it seems that it is once again difficult to understand how, if at all, the next government will be formed. Apparently, Ayelet Shaked will be the one who will decide whether Netanyahu will reach 61 or not. Former Minister Haim Ramon was a guest on Nissim Mashal's show on 103FM and expressed his opinion. At the beginning of the conversation, Nissim Mashal asked Ramon to remind him that in their last conversation he said that Netanyahu's bloc would reach 61 seats. Ramon asked to be precise: "No, I said he has a better chance than ever. From Netanyahu's perspective, this poll is a good poll. The election results will be such that if Netanyahu reaches 61, he will be prime minister, and if he doesn't, there will be a rotation, the Haredim will force a rotation between Gantz and him - with Gantz first. Ayelet Shaked will not pass the threshold, I'm willing to bet you anything you want. Shaked's mandates are stable and strong as of yesterday, she is about a step away from the threshold. "If Ayelet Shaked doesn't pass the threshold, then two mandates, what there are today, go to the Netanyahu bloc. There is also Eli Avidar, who has 20-30 thousand votes that are being cast for him, all of them are voters, except for Bibi, and he definitely won't pass the threshold. "In light of my analysis, Netanyahu is closer to 61 than he has been to date. Yair Lapid announced at his election conference that his goal is for Yesh Atid to be the largest party, so it is not for nothing that on the eve of the Knesset dissolution he was a teammate of Aryeh Deri and both prevented the reduction of the threshold when Yair Lapid knows that four parties from the 'Not Bibi' bloc are on the verge of the threshold. He did this in contrast to the previous elections, he decided that he would drink votes from Meretz and Labor. The confrontation between him and Gantz will flare up as the elections approach." Mashaal wondered whether, according to him, Yair Lapid is going to make the Labor and Meretz parties disappear. Ramon clarified: "He will do everything to ensure that everyone in his bloc votes for Yesh Atid. This policy of Lapid will crown Netanyahu because it could also lower the Labor Party and certainly Meretz below the threshold. From his perspective, this is a very wrong policy, but he says 'I want to be an alternative' because he understands that his chances of forming a government in the current situation, according to all the polls, are such that he cannot form a government while he is at the head of it. "He knows that the only one in the bloc who might be able to form a government is Gantz. If Bibi doesn't have 61, he wants to reduce everyone, including Gantz, and that's why he is adopting the policy. He said it, I didn't invent it. "Lapid's move could bring 61 and he wants to reduce Gantz because Gantz's slogan in the elections will be either Bibi or Gantz. Lapid is not in this game and he wants to crush this equation both by the size of his party and by making his main rival for leadership smaller.".