Poll: Netanyahu leads by a huge margin, only 61% think Bennett is suitable. And mandates?

January 19, 2022   

A survey published this morning (Wednesday) in Israel Hayom shows that the Likud party would remain the largest party in the Knesset if elections were held today, with Benjamin Netanyahu leading the Likud. Experts clash? The convoluted storm surrounding the coronavirus vaccine The survey, conducted yesterday and the day before yesterday by the 'Mind Pool' institute, headed by Prof. Yitzhak Katz, shows that the Likud is strengthening slightly to 34 seats. Yesh Atid is the second largest party in the Knesset with 18 seats, followed by Blue and White and Shas with 9 seats each. Labor and Religious Zionism receive 8 seats each, followed by United Torah Judaism and the Joint List with 7 seats each. Yisrael Beiteinu receives 6 seats, while Bennett's Yamina only receives 5 seats, the same number as the Ra'am party. Meretz receives 4 seats, while Gideon Sa'ar's party - New Hope, does not pass the threshold. Of those who voted for Yamina in the elections for the 24th Knesset, only about a third said they would vote for it again. 19% of its voters switched to Likud, and another 13% switched to support religious Zionism (which in the poll comes out to 8 seats). A quarter of its voters are "sitting on the fence" and do not currently have a party to support it. Voters for New Hope were mainly divided between Likud (19%), Yamina (12%) and Blue and White (4%). 29% of its supporters have not yet decided who they will support. The poll shows that Netanyahu still lacks a few seats to return to power - this Assuming that the Yamina party does not join the government led by him. According to the survey, the right-wing-ultra-Orthodox bloc in the opposition reaches 58 seats. If Yamina joins, the right-wing bloc led by Netanyahu will reach 63 seats. The political system still does not know whether the coming days will be the end of the Netanyahu era, and so do potential voters. Nevertheless, the results of the survey show that currently there is one preferred candidate for the public to replace the incumbent opposition leader - and that is Nir Barkat. If Barkat were to lead the Likud, the Likud would indeed decrease in the number of seats - but not by much. The Likud led by Barkat wins 29 seats, and together with the right-wing bloc in the opposition, they equal 59 seats. Like Netanyahu, Barkat also does not have a majority without Yamina. Alongside this, it is estimated that the right-wing parties in the current coalition will be able to support him and join the government led by him - in contrast to the scenario in which Netanyahu continues to lead the Likud. However, if Likud were led by Yuli Edelstein or Yisrael Katz, the largest party in the Knesset would drop significantly in the number of seats, effectively losing the lead to Yesh Atid. Edelstein brings Likud to 16 seats and Katz to 15. And who is most suitable to serve as prime minister? 34% of those surveyed responded that Netanyahu is the most suitable for the prime ministership. This lead opens a huge gap over Yair Lapid, who is in second place with 17% of those surveyed. Incumbent Prime Minister Naftali Bennett receives only 6%, even less than several senior Likud members and even less than Benny Gantz, who receives 7%. What does the public think of the emerging plea deal? The public, it seems, is very divided. The survey examined who benefits from the possible move and who loses. 36% said that the Attorney General and the Attorney General's Office have given up more to reach the plea bargain as reported in the media, and on the other hand, 23% believe that Benjamin Netanyahu came out on top. 29% think that both gave up equally, while 12% believe that neither of them gave up. Although the division is not very clear, it can be said that in general, supporters of the right-wing parties believe that the one who gave up more in order to reach the plea bargain is Netanyahu, while supporters of the left-wing parties believe that the Attorney General and the Attorney General's Office were forced to give up more in order to reach the published arrangement.