Prof. Ran Blitzer: "Millions will be infected, the number of people hospitalized in critical condition will be large"'

January 9, 2022   

Prof. Ran Blitzer, head of the Cabinet of Experts that advises the government, was interviewed by Israel Hayom regarding the spread of the Omicron strain and the recent record-breaking incidence. Did you divide? For thousands of years we dreamed of Jerusalem, so now we want to dirty it? On Saturday: The mother rested, the child pulled the trigger – and was hospitalized in serious condition Are you crazy? Is your child unprotected? One in every 150 children who contracted the virus was hospitalized What is your assessment of the Omicron wave? How many confirmed cases will we reach at the peak and how long will it last? ""There are no predictive models for what it will be like at the peak. There are too many unknowns to currently predict the number of people infected at the peak, and the estimated date when we will reach it. There will be millions of people infected, and therefore there will also be many hospitalized in serious condition.". What is known so far about Omicron and its more severe disease, and are the question marks starting to fade? ""In recent weeks, we have learned that Omicron behaves fundamentally differently from previous strains that we have known. The differences between it and Delta are much greater than Delta to Alpha and the other strains. It has different mechanisms of entry into the cell and behaves differently at the cellular level. Omicron infects more cells of the upper respiratory system and less the lungs and other changes that are currently being identified. All of these differences at the cellular level probably help explain why its violence is less than that of Delta. And at this point, it is clear to us from the British data that the risk of serious hospitalization is at least 3 times lower than Delta. And this is good news, but since it is more contagious than Delta and can infect both people who have been sick in the past and people who have been vaccinated, then the number of infections will be greater and the number of accumulated hospitalizations may also be higher. Therefore, the health system is preparing for more severe scenarios.". Is Omicron more dangerous for children? ""We do not take it as a fact that Omicron is more dangerous for children, but it is important to clarify that we are still collecting information from the world and there is still uncertainty about this issue. In my opinion, it is right to exercise caution and make a significant effort to prevent infection of children in educational settings by all means available to us, and I once again call on those who have not vaccinated their children to do so now. It is important to protect children in order to prevent PIMS (multisystem inflammatory syndrome and symptoms of long Covid), the rate of which is still unknown.". Is herd immunity possible in Omicron due to the large scale of infection? ""We still don't know what the infection rate will be, but we've heard the aspiration for herd immunity before. We're now seeing that what's happening to people who were infected in previous rounds is that they're currently vulnerable to reinfection. The aspiration at every stage should be to not get infected as much as daily behavior and vaccination allow, and to remember that vaccination provides protection without taking risks. It's not certain that someone infected with Omicron will be protected from additional strains and later infection.". At this stage, is there a way to curb the infection through restrictions such as a green note or a gathering limit (purple note)? ""The vaccine, and in particular the booster, provide good protection against infection with Delta, and excellent protection against severe disease due to Delta and Omicron. The green label creates an environment in which far fewer infections from Delta occur, but is not sufficiently protected against infection with Omicron. It is important to make it clear to adults and risk groups that in order to avoid infection with Omicron in the coming weeks, they must also avoid non-essential gatherings that take place under a green label.". You said last week that the green card also lost some of its protection. What is the recommendation now for vulnerable populations? How would you recommend doing it? ""Despite the high contagiousness of Omicron, at-risk populations can avoid and become infected with the virus in the current wave. Those who have not received the third dose must be vaccinated (there are 400,000 people over the age of 40 who have not yet received a third vaccine). Those who are eligible for a fourth dose can receive a fourth dose and raise their antibodies to the state they were in after the third dose. Evidence from the UK shows that these people, vaccinated with a 'fresh' booster, have protection of almost 90% against severe disease. "The second thing is to make sure to wear a mask in any closed space and gatherings. In addition, you should avoid going to events that take place in closed spaces except for essential daily activities. The elderly population should continue to maintain social activity as usual and meet people, but try to do it outside or in a ventilated space as much as possible. "On the one hand, avoid multi-participant activities in closed spaces, but on the other hand, do not reach a state of social isolation to continue activities and meet friends.".