The Omicron Outbreak: This is the dire scenario that experts fear

December 26, 2021   

An expert scenario presented to the government states that if the Omicron variant spreads in Israel at the rate it is spreading in some countries around the world, such as Britain and Denmark, Israel could reach up to 90,000 new confirmed cases per day within a few weeks and about 4 million Israelis will be infected with the new strain within a month and a half. According to the scenario, shared by the Emergency Department of the Ministry of Health and the National Information Center for the Corona Campaign of the Intelligence Corps - published by Ran Resnik in the newspaper 'Israel Hayom', there is "research evidence of a certain decrease in the violence of the variant", but a small decrease in relation to the expected increase in infections, which is three to four times faster, and possibly even more than we knew - this is also due to "the increased ability to infect even a vaccinated population." It also shows that if the accelerated spread of Omicron does occur, there could be a collapse of hospital services in Israel due to morbidity and hospitalizations on a scale never seen before in Israel, widespread morbidity in nursing homes and long-term care facilities, mass infections and isolations of teachers and students in the education system "in a manner never seen before," and widespread infections and isolations in the defense system and government and administrative institutions. Senior health system officials have been warned that preparation that depends solely on the current index of the number of seriously ill patients in hospitals will not leave time for the state and the health system to adequately prepare. "Omicron has taken over the morbidity picture in many countries, and within about two to three weeks it is expected to become dominant in Israel. In addition, it is expected to exceed the peaks of confirmed cases in previous waves and much more quickly, and the increase in morbidity will challenge many of the daily functions, including education, leisure, workplaces and daily services. Essential areas need to be prepared as soon as possible in order to maintain the continuity of functioning, including the IDF, police, prisons and infrastructure providers," the experts wrote. As presented, in England there has already been an increase in two weeks from 200 new cases per day to 50,000, and the prevalence of Omicron has increased to more than 60 percent of the new confirmed cases. In London it has increased to more than 90 percent, along with a sharp increase in hospitalizations, alongside the beginning of deaths from Omicron. According to estimates, about one percent of the population in England is infected every day. The impact of the spread of Omicron in England is already very serious and threatens the health system, and about 100 ambulances in London are already disabled (out of about 400) due to a severe shortage of staff, due to hundreds of sick and isolated people, and the most serious emergency alert has been declared there. It also appears that in London about 10 percent of medical staff are absent due to illness and isolation and there is 'growing concern for the safety of patients.' Many schools have switched to distance learning, buses and trains are being canceled due to dozens of sick employees, and it is estimated that about 7.5 percent of the workforce in Britain is disabled due to illness or isolation.