1.
Gideon Sa'ar's drop in the polls is turning the cheeks of some of his competitors pink, who are standing on the sidelines and waiting for him to crash. And they don't necessarily belong to the Likud.
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Sa'ar began his election campaign by defecting from the Likud ranks, launching 'New Hope' and immediately soaring in the polls to more than 20 seats.
A source who initially supported him and is now undecided told me: "I was sure he was going to win the elections and become the next 'Benny Gantz.'" Gantz, as you may recall, has presented over three election campaigns a number of seats that are more or less the same as the Likud.
In the end, we all know the ending. How Netanyahu smeared him with honey, formed a coalition with him, smeared him with tar, and rolled him towards the electoral threshold.
But the beginning was sparkling and impressive. "I was sure that if Gideon alone, in an independent party, without joining other parties as Benny Gantz did, brings in such an impressive number of mandates, then when the campaign starts, he will only go up and up. I was disappointed.".
In a fairly regular ritual, Saar began to lose one more mandate after another, until last night he found himself in a News 13 poll with only 9 mandates. So true, it's still a single poll, there are 13 days left until the elections, but I'm not sure this isn't "the beginning of the end.".
2.
In a conversation with a senior official in one of the parties that is not in the bloc that automatically supports Netanyahu, he sounded happy. "Gideon will find himself in a spiral that will lead to collapse," he believes. His details are blurred to prevent identification.
If you see a politician who the polls give a small number of mandates, but insists on talking about himself as the 'next prime minister,' check to see if he is suffering from 'vertigo.' That is, a loss of spatial orientation. Lieberman, for example, is careful to emphasize that he will support whoever brings the highest number of mandates to the prime ministership (and does not answer to Benjamin Netanyahu, of course) but does not declare himself an option, because he is connected to reality.
But this is exactly, according to my interlocutor, what could happen to Gideon if his decline in the polls continues, while he continues to pump the air, "I will be prime minister" - and invite Netanyahu to a confrontation with him, as an equal among equals.
""This is also a wheel that often fulfills itself. When voters see that a party is collapsing, they say to themselves, why us? People like to rally for victory. A drop to single digits could, depending on the observer, of course, crush it even more. Then, even if it passes the threshold, it will not have the power to influence the fate of the next government.".
And then what will happen, actually? One of the two: Either Netanyahu's bloc gets 61 seats and the elections are decided - or they go to round 5.
The question is, is there another option?
3.
My interlocutor insists that it exists. "If two seats are lost from Aser plus two seats from Likud, and they go to Yamina, just for example, then it becomes a party of 14 seats and Bennett will be the next prime minister.".
How will that happen? I wonder.
His calculation is simple. At least in his eyes. "There will be a new right-wing bloc, headed by Bennett. And it includes religious Zionism, the Haredim and Gideon Sa'ar. If this entire bloc recommends Bennett for prime minister, there is an immediate coalition.".
How exactly?
Right 14 seats (we were generous)
Religious Zionism - 5 seats (we were generous)
New Hope - 9 seats (two were 'donated' to the right, according to the interviewee)
Shas - 8 seats (the optimists give it 9, the pessimists 7, and there is even a poll that says 6)
United Torah Judaism - 7 seats (we were generous. Some give it only 6)
Total: 43 seats.
Well, how do you put together a coalition with that? Very simple. Add Yair Lapid, and there's a government.
Tell me, are you serious? I'm having a hard time understanding. Do you see Litzman living together with Lapid in the same coalition? Ben Gvir swimming in the water with Yesh Atid?
Even the interest that drives the "Only Bibi" bloc today is not shared by all of these components. It is not Gafni's interest, not even Litzman's.
Not a serious scenario, in my opinion.
4.
So we were left with two options.
One - Netanyahu's dream, of a "full right," as he calls it.
According to this optimistic scenario - Netanyahu's, these are the election results:
Likud - 30 seats (most polls give Likud less, but in most cases the polls gave Likud less than it achieved on election day - and by the way, I have a business card of a sitting Likud MK, with his signature on it, in which he writes that Likud will receive 35 seats. I kept it. We'll see).
Shas - 8 seats
United Torah Judaism - 7 seats
Right - 12 seats
Religious Zionism - 4 seats.
Total: 61.
Add a little more pink to this, in case Shas grows to 9 seats, Yamina to 14, and Religious Zionism - 5. Although it is reasonable to assume that any such addition will come at the expense of someone else from the same bloc, and unfortunately, United Torah Judaism may have difficulty obtaining the seven seats, the scenario that Netanyahu will obtain the number of seats needed to form a government is still on the shelf.
5.
And what happens if there are not 61?
In such a case, a contingency scenario could be added, in a field in which Netanyahu is considered an expert - dismantling and reassembling. That is, pulling out a third of the Saar party the day after the elections, and returning to the Likud.
Every retiree will receive a respectable portfolio, plus a return to the fold of the Likud. Indeed, some of the members of 'New Hope' are those who hold the Likud party dear to their hearts, who sadly left the party that had been their home for years - and returning home is always a joyful event. Especially if you receive favors along the way.
This is of course an extreme case, so let's return to the second - more realistic - option: Round No. 5. Netanyahu will try to bring him in as early as possible, in a way that will not lead to the implementation of the clause in the agreement with Gantz that will land him in Balfour in November 2021. However, to do this, he probably must remain an MK. That is, pass the threshold.
Some jurists disagree. They argue that in the case of a transitional government, even if Gantz is no longer serving as a MK, the clause is relevant. Most opinions believe otherwise. Either way, Netanyahu will try to do everything to ensure that the fifth round takes place in a way that November is very far from being realized.
And in the meantime, go get vaccinated, go vote.
