10 seats for Moshe Kahlon: Takes 4 seats from Aria Deri

April 8, 2014   

A survey published this evening on Channel 10 proves: Anyone who runs alongside Likud is reminiscent of Likud, even if they differ from it here and there – not only does he not take votes from it, but he also increases the right-wing bloc.

This is exactly what happened in the last Knesset elections, only in reverse. Today, everyone admits that if Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman had run as the head of the Yisrael Beiteinu party and not in a united framework with the Likud, the overall result would have been better than the 31 seats the united party won - only 20 for the Likud and 11 for the Yisrael Beiteinu.

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The survey shows that if Moshe Kahlon, the former Likudnik, runs, he will win 10 seats, while Likud-Beitu will receive no less than 33 seats.

ומה במקרה של פיצול בין הליכוד וישראל ביתנו? לפי הסקר, במקרה זה, הליכוד בראשות בנימין נתניהו זוכה ב-28 מנדטים - כפול ממספר המושבים של העבודה. הבית היהודי עם 13 מושבים, יש עתיד במקרה זה נחלשת ל-11 ומעבירה מושב לכחלון שמתחזק ל-11. גם כאן מרצ עם 8, ש"ס ויהדות התורה עם 7 והתנועה עם ארבעה מושבים. ומה עם ישראל ביתנו? היא כרגע עם חמישה מנדטים בלבד. במסגרת הסקר נבחנה גם שאלת התמיכה במועמדות של כחלון לראשות הממשלה. 32% מקרב הנשאלים השיבו שראוי שהשר לשעבר יתמודד על הנהגת המדינה, מול 35% שלא תמכו ברעיון.

 So where do Kahlon's mandates actually come from?

Well, the Labor Party only wins 14 seats, instead of the 15 it currently has. This seat, presumably, is made up of people who voted for Labor because they thought it would take care of the issues raised by the social protest – concern for the weaker and middle classes. Now they prefer to hang their love on Kahlon.

The biggest loser of seats is Yair Lapid, who drops to only 12 seats, out of 19 he won in the last elections. In this case too, it can be assumed that these are 'social' voters who were disappointed with the economic policies he implemented in the Ministry of Finance.

Meretz actually wins two additional seats – 8 seats in total. Livni's party, according to the survey, barely passes the new threshold, but in her case it can be assumed that this is a general disappointment with the conduct of the negotiations, which have recently reached a low point and crisis.

The one that maintains its power is the Jewish Home faction, which had no connection to the social issue, so Kahlon does not threaten it. The same goes for United Torah Judaism.

Another victim, 'Humanity', is Shas - a party that has carved out the social issue on its banner and which is falling in the polls to only 7 seats (compared to 11 today). It turns out that many of its voters think that Kahlon will take better care of their wallets and poverty.