The only tiebreaker is a Lapid-Kahlon union.

January 3, 2018   

Right now, this seems to be the only tiebreaker: a union between Yair Lapid and Moshe Kahlon and the addition of Gabi Ashkenazi.

Quite a few politicians and media figures have been going around in recent months saying – that's it, it's over. They make absurd statements about a 'critical mass' that has been created, 'cracks in the government' and 'it can't continue like this.'.

Meanwhile, due to the mass and cracks, Oren Hazan and Yehuda Glick did not even dare to jump into Zion Square the other day. Lieberman, for whom new elections are, as far as he is concerned, a more serious threat than the Iranian threat, has already made it clear that he is ready to bring the elections forward by a day. Naftali Bennett and Ayelet Shaked are enjoying every moment in powerful positions. The demonstration organized this week by Yoaz Hendel was no small challenge for them. Hendel is everything they both dreamed of being. It is clear to both of them that Hendel has political ambitions, which could harm them, and yet, both of them chose clearly and unequivocally to stand by Netanyahu (Bennett yesterday: Have you seen a single indictment filed yet?).

There is no need to waste words on Kahlon, in this context. He will resign from the position of Finance Minister, only if he has no choice. Netanyahu, therefore, is not in danger of being ousted by his coalition. There is no scenario in Likud where anyone would even try to challenge him. Suffice it to note the astonishing silence of Gideon Sa'ar, the so-called nemesis, who is keeping his fingers crossed for Netanyahu's downfall, but tweets about lighting candles (almost every candle was tweeted), Real Madrid and "Father, be ashamed," a response to Gabbay's attack on the corruption that has plagued Likud, according to him.

Gabbay himself does not currently appear to be a threat to Netanyahu. Every day that he does not hold the leading position in the polls of the center-left camp, he loses a chance to bring in the votes of the soft right, for which he disguises himself so thoroughly. Right-wing voters will not switch to him, if his maximum potential is a senior minister in a government that someone else is putting together.

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Moshe Kahlon and Yair Lapid are in constant contact. They talk a lot, the possibility of a merger is constantly floating around. When the Labor primaries were held, there were already the seeds of agreement, which included former Chief of Staff Ashkenazi and Bozhi Herzog (who tried to concoct the stew). Gabbay's election trumped the cards. It's a natural union, ostensibly. Lapid and Kahlon present close political positions, their parties are devoid of primaries, there are no party power centers that would oppose the union, both are eager to overthrow Netanyahu and, no less, to dwarf Gabbay.

Both are connected to Lieberman and make a great, and often repulsive, effort not to say a bad word about the defense minister, a vital partner, from their perspective, for the government they lead.

Ashkenazi, for his part, has given up his ambition to be number 1 on such a list, which makes him, from their perspective, a natural candidate for defense minister (only a candidate, because even in the optimistic scenario, from their perspective, forming a coalition may be conditional on giving up the defense portfolio).

The last poll (about a month ago, by the way) that examined this possibility predicted 33 seats for such a list, compared to 26 for the Likud led by Netanyahu. Polls tend to be overly optimistic about such combinations. They focus the public on a particular option, and it is not said who will head the list, but it is still clear that there is no practical political alternative at the moment that poses a greater risk to Netanyahu's rule.

The main obstacle is Kahlon. Kahlon simply doesn't like Lapid. Lapid knows that too.

Why? It's not entirely clear. Maybe the difference in biographies between the two. For Kahlon, Lapid will probably always remain the northern Tel Avivian, who received everything on a silver platter. The fact is that it's hard to remember an occasion when Lapid attacked Kahlon while Kahlon keeps coming out. Most recently, when he spoke about those who tweet from luxury restaurants, while he was fighting (in the "Central Headquarters" studio!) against the Recommendations Law.

אין תסריט בו לפיד מוותר על הבכורה לטובת כחלון. האם יש מצב בו כחלון מסכים להיות מספר 2 של לפיד? אנשי כחלון אומרים - בשום פנים ואופן. מקסימום רוטציה. רק לי זה נשמע כמו הצעת פתיחה לא רעה? • מתוך Raviv Drucker's blog. The article was published in Haaretz.'