What will be the impact of the conscription law on Netanyahu bloc voters? According to strategic commentator Shlomo Filber, it amounts to only half a percent.
Filber wrote on his social media account:
An overwhelming majority of those who intend to support the coalition parties - 94% - will continue to support them even if the conscription law passes.
This week, the Knesset returns from recess, and the conscription law is back in our lives. For more than two and a half years, many interested political figures have been using the law for political gain - and in the hope that it will drive a wedge in the coalition.
At first they thought they would use it to bring forward elections, and now they hope to shift votes to the opposition. But it turns out that 95% of the voters will not change their vote even if the law passes.
Among those undecided, only 181% say that passing the law will affect their vote. That is, in total, less than half a percent of Gush voters will not vote if the law passes.
In contrast, failure to pass the law and continuing sanctions will result in 'voting suppression' among ultra-Orthodox voters - estimates indicate a similar number of ultra-Orthodox will not come to vote.
In a week in which Hasmonean soldiers are already returning from operational activity in Lebanon, it appears from the commentators that the effect of the threat of such a law, which could topple a government or cause the right to lose power, has passed.
After two years in which all the reservist organizations and MKs who thought politically of building on the law failed - it is worth adopting the model of Yinon Magal, David Zini, and Abinoam Emunah, the people who have so far recruited the most Haredim to the IDF.
Yinon Magal commented on the survey: "According to Momo Filber, the impact of the conscription law on voters in the Gush HaMoni bloc amounts to about half a percent! In my opinion, not passing the law will hurt the bloc much more because many Haredim will not go to vote.".
Join the Haredim 10 Facebook page >>
Join the X page of Haredim 10 >>
Want more news, videos and stories? Join the Haredim 10 WhatsApp channel >>
