This is the mystery: The draft law that is being formulated, where will it go? Will it be promoted during the summer session of the Knesset or will it be shelved forever? And who really opposes it?
1.
We will begin with the Houses of the Great Men of Israel, with an emphasis on the leaders of the Torah banner. Maran Gra"d Lando trusts the judgment of the Rosh Yeshiva, the Grama Hirsch, who carefully read every paragraph and every line of the proposed law.
This is a law produced by the Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee, headed by MK Boaz Bismuth. However, unlike MK Yuli Edelstein, towards whom the Haredi representatives at the time directed the arrows of criticism, Bismuth is, in fact, hiding behind the committee's legal advisor, Attorney Miri Frankel-Shor, and does not position himself at the "front" (in a sense, by the way) - and she is the one who navigated the various sections, which are difficult for the Haredi rabbis to digest.
Currently, the Grand Master Hirsch opposes the law in its current form unless changes are made to it.
But the meaning of the changes is one: disagreement and alignment on the part of the committee's legal advisor, and possibly also disagreement on the part of the Knesset's legal advisor. And also - and this is the main thing - no chance that the law will not be immediately annulled in the High Court. When it is clear that petitions will be filed, in any case and for any version of the law that is approved.
Is there any chance that the Grand Master Hirsch will be convinced and agree to advance the proposed conscription law, despite its problematic nature, because perhaps the current situation is worse (the danger of arrest hovers over the heads of yeshiva graduates and kollel abbots)?
Here we come to section 2.
2.
There is a claim that I heard from a source who was privy to the matter (not from Netanyahu's office) that he has information indicating that the Prime Minister does not want a conscription law at this time, on the eve of elections, and therefore he is essentially expecting that the great men of Israel will be the ones to hinder its advancement, without him having to put his hands into the boiling cauldron.
Is this information true? It's hard to know. Because on the other hand, Netanyahu's "environment" insists that no change has occurred, and that Netanyahu remains in his position as it was: promoting the conscription law that was formulated in the committee.
At the heart of the dilemma: What is better for Netanyahu? An election campaign in which the left-wing media will bash him for "passing a draft law for the ultra-Orthodox" or an election campaign in which he can roll his eyes and say "in the test of results, it didn't pass." On the other hand, it is reasonable to assume that the ultra-Orthodox media will bash him with all their might, with an emphasis on the Gur Hasidic house newspaper - 'Hamodia'.
For Moti Babchik, by the way, this would be a crushing victory, as he has long believed that there is no chance of a conscription law and that Netanyahu is not really interested in promoting it.
Netanyahu, apparently, is not particularly bothered by either of these things. He does not particularly relate to the left-wing media, and tends to ignore it and even attack it, and it is also unlikely that what is written in the Haredi media hostile to him will particularly "tick" him.
But, and here comes the big 'sorrow'.
There is one thing Netanyahu fears very much: the defection of the ultra-Orthodox parties to the center-left bloc after the elections. In a situation where he is suspected of tampering with the conscription law, it won't really make it any easier for him.
I personally, by the way, belong to those who believe that Netanyahu wants to pass a conscription law. But, as the cliché goes, only time will tell.
Netanyahu is an expert at keeping his cards close to his chest and/or keeping a poker face.
3.
On the side of the chairman of the Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee, Boaz Bismuth, they are determined to continue as usual. In other words, it is likely that they have not received any 'stop' message so far, but they do understand that there will be opposition from the spiritual leaders of 'Degel' to the proposed law - and are waiting for the approval they will give it, if they will.
But they didn't get a 'stop' from Netanyahu.
As you may recall, upon the launch of Operation 'Harry's Roar', MK Bismuth turned to Minister Orit Struk, the minister in charge of National-Civilian Service, and clarified to her: "Contrary to what the Attorney General's Office claims in its draft response to the High Court, that the government supposedly 'froze' the aforementioned bill, but that never happened.".
According to Bismuth, as he wrote to Minister Orit Struk, "All coalition factions responded to the Prime Minister's call in the midst of an existential war to remove all dependencies and conditions regarding the budget law, and it was agreed that, alongside the urgent need to pass a state budget that includes an addition of tens of billions of shekels to the defense budget, they will pass it first, and only then will other bills be passed, including the aforementioned bill.".
Bismuth emphasizes: "Over the past two years, 86 discussions have taken place in the Knesset's Foreign Affairs and Security Committee on the aforementioned bill. All relevant professional groups, civil society, milaminists, and more were heard, and the bill is in its final stages before being approved by the committee for second and third reading.".
Bismuth asked the minister to attach his letter to her response to the petition to the High Court of Justice.
4.
So who is to blame?
Whether the draft law is advanced with the opening of the summer session, even if only for the appearance of 'as if', or whether it is stopped - both sides will claim that the other side is the one who 'put sticks' in the wheels. They - they wanted to and they wanted to.
Unless some side produces proof of the validity of its claims, and that too may happen.
Bottom line: Yeshiva graduates and kollel graduates, those who fall under the definition of 'deserter', will continue to fix their eyes on the draft law, which may save them from the arrests and sanctions.
It is possible that a miracle will occur and the law will be advanced, but it is also very, very possible that only the next government will be able, if at all, to advance anything in the mess that has been dragging on for many years.
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