Could Sa'ar decide the fate of the political system? • Possible scenarios

December 9, 2020   

Whether he is truly fed up with the Likud led by Benjamin Netanyahu or simply concluded that in the upcoming primaries he will slide to the bottom of the list, Gideon Sa'ar's move is brave. Not everyone dares to embark on a political adventure into the unknown. Especially someone who is already as burned as Sa'ar, whose independent political moves have so far failed. The big question that remains open at this stage is whether all of Netanyahu's disillusioned Likud members have already left long ago - for Blue and White, Naftali Bennett and others - or whether Sa'ar's abandonment will lead to another departure effect. Will the elections be postponed? This question may also decide the fate of the entire political system, which is currently marching in giant strides toward another general election. If it becomes clear in the upcoming polls that Saar is biting into the Likud, this may cause Netanyahu to press the brakes and open meaningful negotiations with Benny Gantz in an attempt to postpone the elections. It would be a stroke of luck if it turns out that Saar's departure from the Likud is what brings Gantz's rotation, and not himself, closer to the Prime Minister's Office. Connections in the "Not Just Bibi" Camp" But it is not at all certain that Saar will take away significant votes from Netanyahu. It is possible that those who will be most affected by this are those who have already announced that they will run for prime minister against him – Yair Lapid and Naftali Bennett. Both currently hold quite a few votes from the "just not Bibi" camp, and now a new player is joining in on the exact same slot. It seems that that camp is already crowded and full to the brim. Elections in such a situation do not weaken Netanyahu, but rather strengthen him. Therefore, it is reasonable to assume that we will see, if there are indeed elections, significant unifications and combinations, otherwise it will be possible to declare Netanyahu the next prime minister right now. Bennett's Alternative Coalition The latest developments are not making Netanyahu any calmer. Although Gideon Sa'ar has the potential to cause real damage to Bennett, his resignation from the Likud could actually bring the Yamina chairman closer to the Prime Minister's Office. If until now the possibility of an alternative coalition led by Bennett without the Likud seemed like a narrow and unrealistic scenario, since it would require illogical alliances like Lapid with the Haredi or Bennett with the left, now another option has opened up for a coalition in which two right-wing parties would be members, which is a different world altogether. This is a coalition with legitimacy, and it does not include Netanyahu. Walking into oblivion And there is another scenario, according to which Saar will disappear into oblivion in a short time and be forgotten alongside his new party. Gideon Saar is a very popular figure in the studios, mainly due to the hostile treatment he received from Netanyahu, but this is not always enough to win sympathy from the public at home. Saar is a veteran and seasoned politician, but even if you try hard, it is difficult to recall a move or achievement that he can be proud of and now ask for the public's trust in his candidacy. In this respect, even Moshe Kahlon, who did not announce that he was running for prime minister but for finance minister, came with a more impressive record, after the revolution in the cellular market that is recorded in his name.